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David Benavidez analyzes Spence vs. Garcia

Errol Spence Jr Mikey Garcia

By Aragon Garcia: Former WBC super middleweight champion David Benavidez says size will play a factor in Saturday’s fight between welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. and Mikey Garcia in their fight on Premier Boxing Champions on Fox PPV at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Benavidez (20-0, 17 KOs) says the four division world champion Mikey will win the fight if it goes the full 12 rounds. If there’s a knockout, it’ll be Spence that wins, Benavidez says. He admits that he’s pulling for Mikey to get the ‘W’ on Saturday, but he’s not certain who wins the fight.

“I think the size difference will play a big role,” Benavidez said to Fighthype about the Spence vs. Garcia match. “I’m behind Mikey Garcia because he’s Mexican. I support my people all the way. If it goes the distance, it’s Mikey Garcia. If it’s a knockout, it’s Errol Spence. I wouldn’t bet at all. It’s a hard fight. I don’t know who’s going to win,” Benavidez said.

Benavidez’s prediction on the fight sounds about right. Spence has the bigger potential to get a knockout because of his size, and him being the natural welterweight. Spence is more like a drained down junior middleweight than a welterweight, which makes it all the more tough for Mikey, 31, to attempt to knock him out in this fight. In the boxing skills department, Mikey is better than Spence hands down without any question. As such, if the fight goes the full 12 rounds, Mikey has an excellent chance of getting the nod by the judges based on his boxing skills, fast hands, and his high degree of talent.

With his bad habit of walking don his opponent, Spence is going to leave himself open for Mikey’s counter shots the entire night. It’s going to be easy for Mikey to find him with his accurate shots. The judges aren’t going too have too many problems identifying who the better fighter is in each round. Mikey is going to be able to pick Spence apart with his faster shots. But with Spence’s size and power, he could wear Mikey down if he’s not able to keep moving long enough to make it to the later rounds. That’s half the battle for Mikey. He’s got to find a way to make it to the championship rounds. If the unbeaten Garcia can make it to the 10th round, he has a chance to go the full 12 on Adrenalin. When Mikey sees the finish line, he’s going to steam ahead with everything he’s got to go the full distance. With Mikey’s skills, and the crowd being behind him, he’ll have a very good chance of getting the decision over Errol.

If Spence loses the fight, it’ll be because he’s not ready to be inside the ring with a talented pro like Mikey. There will be no shame involved. Spence shouldn’t hang his head down if he loses to Mikey. He can come again, and be a better fighter in the future if he learns from the mistakes he makes on Saturday against Garcia.

Benavidez, 22, has his own fight to take care of in veteran J’Leon Love (24-2-1, 13 KOs), who he’ll be fighting in a 10 round co-feature bout on Spence-Garcia card. Another great fight on the card is former World Boxing Council bantamweight champion Luis Nery (28-0, 22 KOs) fighting McJoe Arroyo (18-2, 8 KOs). Those two will be battling in a 10 round fight. Nery is predicting a sixth round knockout.

“I feel like I’m only getting better,” Benavidez said. “I just turned 22. I feel like the sky’s the limit for me, as long as I keep giving them good shows like just saw right now [with Love]. I’m only getting better and people are going to want to see me.”

Benavidez wants to make a statement on Saturday by knocking out 31-year-old Love. Rogelio ‘Porky’ Medina stopped Love in the third round in 2014. Benavidez subsequently knocked Medina out in the eighth round in 2017. The way Benavidez handled a common opponent in Medina gives him confidence that he’ll be able to knockout Love too. Love lost his last fight to former WBO middleweight champion Peter Quillin last year in a 10 round decision. Love still thinks he’ll beat Benavidez, who he rates as a weaker puncher than Porky Medina.

“I don’t think people realize how young I am, and how much potential I have to go up,” Benavidez said. “I haven’t even gotten my man strength, and I’m knocking people out nasty.”

Boxing fans have a hard time seeing Benavidez as a young fighter, because he looks mature for his age, and he’s been fighting for six years already as a pro since 2013. Benavidez turned pro at 16-years-old. You don’t see that too often with top fighters turning pro at such an early age. A lot of the top fighters have extensive amateur careers, and they don’t turn pro until they’re in their early 20s at 21 or 22. For all intents and purposes, Benavidez’s amateur career took place in his first 20 fights as a pro. He’s now ready to take on the best fighters at super middleweight in Anthony Dirrell, Caleb Plant, Callum Smith and Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez. IBF super middleweight champion Plant, 26, is the fighter that Benavidez, 6’1 1/2″, has his eyes on in the near future. He wants to fight him. Plant is open to the fight as well. Benavidez needs to win back his WBC 168 lb title first by beating the new WBC champion Anthony Dirrell.

“Way more fireworks,” Benavidez said about a future fight with IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant. “He knows how to talk. He’s a character. He would be fireworks all the way,” Benavidez said.

Benavidez vs. Plant is going to be a big fight in the future, as long as both guys keep winning long enough for the match to eventually take place. Plant looks vulnerable though. He could get beaten long before he faces Benavidez if he’s matched against the wrong guy by his management.

“If Terence Crawford could box him [Spence] really well, an not stay in one place and pot shot him [he could win],” Benavidez said when asked if Terence Crawford can beat Spence. “That’s a hard fight to take too, because Errol Spence is a monster, bro. He’s going to put that pressure on you the whole fight. Terence Crawford is a monster too. He knows how to throw shots really good. So I don’t know how that fight would turn out,” Benavidez said.

This is a good fight too for the future. However, it might not happen if Spence loses to Mikey on Saturday. Spence’s management at Premier Boxing Champions probably won’t want to have him fight another great boxer in Crawford if he loses to Garcia.

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