By Jeff Aranow: Former light heavyweight champion Sergey ‘Krusher’ Kovalev (32-3-1, 28 KOs) is in a must win fight this Saturday night in his rematch against WBO 175 lb champion Eleider Alvarez (24-0, 12 KOs) on ESPN+ at The Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, Texas. Kovalev, 35, is looking to avenge his seventh round knockout loss to Alvarez from last August in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
Kovalev was dominating Alvarez through the first six rounds until suddenly he was hurt in the 7th, and dropped three times before the fight was halted by referee David Fields. Kovalev blames the loss on his conditioning, which has clearly become a problem for him lately. Kovalev also blamed his first loss to Andre Ward in 2016 on his conditioning, as he gassed out in the same way against him as he did in his loss to Eleider. Kovalev will need to find the Fountain of Youth to become the fighter the was five or six years ago if he wants to beat Alvarez on Saturday night.
“I didn’t have enough gas, enough power. You saw my condition. I was lazy it was like something was wrong with my body,” Kovalev said. “Right now I must prove that I am the best in this division by this victory on Saturday night.”
The excuses by Kovalev run hallow after a while. It would have been better if Kovalev had simply admitted that he got caught by a big shot from Alvarez in the seventh round, and that reason why he lost the fight. Alvarez, 34, seemed to intentionally wait until the second half of the fight before he went on the attack against Kovalev. Alvarez likely followed Andre Ward’s blueprint in waiting until Kovalev was slightly tired in the second half of the contest, because it would have been too risky to go on the attack in the early rounds when he was fresh.
Kovalev needs to expect Eleider to use the same approach as he did in the first fight by being passive in the first five or six rounds of the fight on Saturday night before he goes on the attack. Alvarez has some punching power, but he’s not a huge puncher, and he’s not explosive like Kovalev. It might be in Kovalev’s best interest to go after Eleider right away so that he get him out of there before he gasses out, because his stamina likely won’t improve from his previous fight. Kovalev proved in his knockout wins over Igor Mikhalkin and Vyacheslav Shabranskyy that he’s still a huge puncher and very dangerous in the first seven rounds. But it’s no good if Kovalev’s opponents are going to be playing possum on him the way that Ward and Alvarez did in hopes of waiting for him to fade before they go on the attack in the second half of the fight. Kovalev is likely going to be just as tired on Saturday as he was in his first fight with Alvarez when the contest gets into the second half, which is why he needs to unload everything he can in the first half of the fight to try and get Alvarez out of there.
If Kovalev can go after Alvarez in an all out assault early on, it’s going to make it awfully hard for him to play possum. You can only fight like that if you have great defense, a superb chin or good mobility. Alvarez isn’t great in any of those areas. He’s merely adequate. Kovalev didn’t push the fight hard enough to try and get him out of there. He was lazy, and that enabled Alvarez to get to the seventh round where he suddenly went after him to score a knockout.
“My prediction is that I will get back my belt. I don’t know how, but I will get it back at any price or any cost,” Kovalev said. “He got lucky in the last fight…I will prove that I am better than Alvarez. And that is my goal to get my belts back. That’s my goal.”
Kovalev will need to fight a lot better this time if he wants to win his WBO 175 lb title back from Alvarez. But as far as capturing all the titles at light heavyweight, it could prove to be an unattainable goal for the 35-year-old Kovalev. He’s getting older, and he would need to beat IBF champion Artur Beterbiev, WBC champion Dmitry Bivol and WBC belt holder Oleksander Gvozdyk. Those guys are all arguably better fighters than Eleider Alvarez. If successful in dethroning Alvarez on Saturday night, Kovalev will have no problems getting a fight against the Top Rank promoted Gvozdyk. However, it might not be as easy to get a fight against Bivol, who fights on DAZN.
On the undercard, unbeaten Teofimo Lopez (11-0, 9 KOs) will be fighting Diego Magdaleno (31-2, 13 KOs) in a 10 round fight. Lopez, 21, is young puncher that looks destined to be a world champion in the near future. This fight against Magdaleno, 32, is a slight step up for Lopez Magdaleno has won his last three fights since being stopped in the second round by former World Boxing Organization lightweight champion Terry Flanagan four years ago in October 2015. Magdaleno has since beaten Jesus Cuadro, Emmanuel Herrera and Art Hovhannisyan.
WBO featherweight champion Oscar Valdez (24-0, 19 KOs) will be coming off of an 11 month injury layoff to defend his belt against voluntary challenger #14 WBO Carmine Tommasone (19-0, 5 KOs). Valdez, 28, last saw action his successful title defense against former super bantamweight world champion Scott Quigg last March. Valdez beat Quigg by a 12 round unanimous decision, but he suffered a broken jaw in round five of that contest, and he was forced to fight the remainder of the fight with the injury. Rather than quitting on his stool, Valdez fought with the injury, keeping his mouth open to let the constant stream of blood leak out. It was an ugly to watch fight due to the punishment that Valdez took. He won but it was a costly victory, as he was sidelined for all this time. Valdez’s fight against the 34-year-old Irish native Tommasone isn’t one that he would have likely bothered to make if he hadn’t been injured. Few boxing fans in the U.S have ever heard of Tommasone, and there’s not much interest in fight, because it’s a tune-up level match, and not one that the fans are eager to see.
#1 IBF Richard Commey (27-2, 24 KOs) will be fighting Isa Chaniev (13-1, 6 KOs) for the vacant IBF lightweight world title that was recently vacated by Mikey Garcia. This fight is important for Top Rank, because they plan on having WBA/WBO lightweight champion Vasyl Lomachenko (12-1, 9 KOs) facing the winner of this fight for the IBF title. That would give the 30-year-old Lomachenko a chance to win a third title at 135. If he can that, it would leave only the World Boxing Council belt not in his possession. Top Rank would then look to setup a fight between whoever winds up as the WBC champion if the current champion Mikey Garcia chooses to give up the belt after his title shot against IBF welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. on March 16. Top Rank will likely make a big offer to whoever ends up with the WBC title to make it worthwhile for them to face Lomachenko. Top Rank boss Bob Arum said Lomachenko won’t be moving up to light welterweight, as it’s hard enough for him to fight at lightweight after starting his career out at featherweight.