By Jonny Rashman: The blockbuster rematch between WBA, WBC & IBO Middleweight champion of the world Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (38 wins – 34 ko’s – 0 losses) and Saul “CANELO” Alvarez (49 wins – 34 ko’s – 1 loss) takes places at the epicentre of boxing in Las Vegas Nevada this Saturday night. This rematch has been plagued with controversy, accusations and failed drug tests since the two boxing superstars contested a thrilling 12 round draw last September.
It’s no secret that Canelo failed two drug tests for the banned substance clenbuterol prior to the first GGG fight. Yes, we have all heard the excuse Canelo used about how the meat he consumed was contaminated with the substance, whether you believe it or not he has served the ban handed out to him by the Navada State Athletic Commission and is ready to resume hostilities with the fearsome punching Golovkin. Like a kid on Christmas morning I cannot wait for the first bell to ring. I firmly believe Canelo will win the rematch and this article will explain why.
The first fight between these two warriors ended in a controversial draw. When the final bell sounded I originally thought Canelo had nicked the fight, this was partly due to my adrenalin, the fact Canelo took all of GGG’S ferocious punches, took him 12 rounds and outclassed him at times. After analysing the fight again, it became clear GGG clearly won the fight with constant pressure and the busier work rate. This was one of the most technical slugfests I have ever seen. Both men’s boxing IQ was to a standard only to be admired. The Championship rounds (10,11 &12) were Canelo’s best of the fight and clearly showed the blueprint on how to beat GGG in the rematch.
In my opinion Canelo came in to bulky for the first fight. He was fighting at 160 pounds for the first time and was facing a legitimate 160-pound fighter. For me this restricted his movement and his punch output, forcing him to stand in range and trade blow for blow with GGG, whilst consistently being backed up against the ropes which played straight in to GGG’S hands. When Canelo used his lateral movement and threw three and four punch Combinations, he really bamboozled GGG at times. Unfortunately, it wasn’t for a sustained period of time. It would be for 40 seconds of the round instead of 3 minutes of the round. This resulted in Canelo losing a lot of the rounds on my scorecard.
The common theme in the first half of the fight was GGG hunting Canelo down, he may not have been throwing a million punches a round, however he was still the busier fighter. Canelo would throw the more eye-catching combinations although only in short bursts. Canelo regularly encountered problems when he was backed up in straight lines against the ropes. This would give GGG the opportunity to set himself and throw his explosive combinations, this rang true in round five when the Kazakhstan native threw a trademark thunderous right hand that connected on the red-haired Mexican’s jaw, this prompted Canelo to shake his head in bravado which ultimately means “yes I felt that”.
In the second half of the fight Canelo looked visibly tired, therefore allowing his punch output which wasn’t that high in the first place to dramatically decrease. I believe this was due to the fact he was carrying too much muscle mass. Far too many times Canelo was laid up against the ropes not throwing anything back in response to GGG’S sustained pressure. This is not the right tactics to dethrone the 36-year-old Middleweight Champion. The times Canelo had his best success was when he threw three and four punch combinations then backed it up with another two & three punch flurry. This would force GGG on the back-foot making him throw wild shots from range. Canelo is the faster and more skilled boxer of the two. He is a master counter puncher and is one of the best at judging range. He has lighting fast and explosive hands, yes, his feet are not as fast as his hands but his timing and judgement of range makes him deceptively fast at closing the distance and making an opponent miss by inches.
Looking at recent pictures of Canelo compared to the first encounter, he looks a lot leaner which indicates he’s heading in to the rematch built for speed. This will allow him to up his work rate and consistently move and create angles to avoid GGG’S onslaught. At 36 years of age GGG is no spring chicken and is showing signs of slowing down. He is there to be hit. The former welterweight World champion Kell Brook (37 wins- 26 ko’s – 2) losses showed this in their 2016 battle. GGG came out as the victor but was very easy to hit and was outclassed at times against the much smaller man. The former middleweight World champion Danel Jacobs (34 wins- 29 ko’s- 2 losses) also showed the blueprint on how to beat the undefeated champion. Although he ended up losing a controversial 12 round unanimous decision. Jacobs flashy combinations and constant footwork frustrated and created a lot of problems for GGG. My thesis is Canelo knows he is very unlikely to knock GGG out. This was very evident in one of the most iconic moments of the first fight. In round 9 Canelo stayed in the pocket and landed a potent explosive right hand that detonated flush on the champions jaw. GGG didn’t even flinch as the shot ricocheted of his iron jaw. This is the moment I am convinced Canelo knew he would never be able to knockout his foe.
As I eluded to earlier in this article the championship rounds (10, 11 &12) are the rounds that persuaded me Canelo will win this rematch. Those last 3 rounds he got his second wind and outclassed GGG. In round 10 Canelo came out like a tornado, putting combinations together effortlessly and consolidated it with more combinations. If Canelo keeps this intensity and work rate up for the duration of the rounds he will win this fight by three or four rounds. In round 11 Canelo starts the round light on his feet, throwing single shots and avoids going back in straight lines, he glides side to side creating angles. In the middle of the round he really shows his elite level boxing skills, he lands a razor-sharp right hand followed by a right uppercut, left hook and right-hand combination. This oozes class. Just like Canelo did in round 5 GGG shakes his head and bangs his chest in a deceleration of war. This time when Canelo is backed up on the ropes instead of staying there he slips a left and right hand and slides away from the ropes making GGG look very ordinary in the process. In Round 12 Canelo starts the round in a similar fashion to round 10. He looks so explosive landing mesmerising combinations. GGG work rate has significantly decreased, this coincides with the fact Canelo has substantially upped his wort rate and constantly moved around the ring. Two minutes 18 seconds of the last round Canelo produces a moment of Brillance, a three-punch body and head attack which was immediately followed by a lighting quick seven punch combination that bounced GGG’S head up and down. Although GGG at the end of the round comes on strong, Canelo wins the round on work rate.
I am convinced this rematch is going to be more captivating then the first fight. The key to victory for Canelo is to up his work rate, throw a variety of combinations to head and body & spin of the ropes when he finds himself in that position. This will frustrate and offset GGG, thus not allowing him to generate the kind of power he is accustomed to throwing. When Canelo used these tactics in the first fight he really did look the far superior fighter. Although anything can happen in boxing. I believe Canelo will learn from his mistakes in the first fight and emerge as the victor.