By Scott Gilfoid: George Groves has doubts that Callum Smith will have what it takes to unseat him tonight as the WBA Super World super middleweight champion in the World Boxing Super Series (WBSS) final a Kind Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Groves (28-3, 20 KOs) thinks Smith, 28, lacks the confidence and the experience to win this all important match. Smith had chances to step it up in the past to fight James DeGale and Groves, but it didn’t take it. How been slowly ramping up to this moment for six years, and now that it’s finally here, he’ll fall short, Groves, 30, predicts.
This is a fight where Smith has a chance to avenge his older brother Paul Smith’s 2nd round knockout loss to Groves in 2011. Paul suffered a hand injury in the closing movements of round 1, and this led to the fight being halted in round 2. It would obviously be nice for Callum to avenge his brother’s loss tonight. Whether Callum has the talent to do this is the big question. Most boxing fans don’t see Smith winning tonight. He’s too slow, too inexperienced and too easy to figure out. By this point in time, Groves has dissected Smith’s game and come up with a dozen plans in how to pick him apart and send him on his way to the losing ranks.
Groves appears to think Smith (24-0 17 KOs) has not much going on upstairs. However, even if Smith isn’t a huge thinker, Groves sees him as still a formidable threat to him tonight. Groves was able to talk circles around former super middleweight champion Carl Froch and make him look incredibly bad in the lead up to their two fights in 2013 and 2014, and yet Groves lost both fights to him. Could it be the same situation with Smith?
“It’s a daunting prospect, taking the next step-up. Some people are born to do it, some people are ignorant,” Groves said to skysports.com. “You can have over-thinkers or under-thinkers. People who have nothing going on upstairs are usually just as dangerous, they are not aware of what is going on.”
It’s not just Smith’s lack of experience that is the problem in estimating what his chances are in winning tonight against Groves. It’s how bad Smith has looked in his fights against limited opposition in his bouts against Christopher Rebrasse, Nieky Holzken, Erik Skoglund, Vladine Biosse, and Nikola Sjekloca. When Smith wasn’t able to knockout those guys, he labored, took shots and looked very marginal in winning those fights. It wasn’t a good situation. Smith barely looked better than some of them. Yeah, Smith was better than all of those fighters, but not enough to where you could see him stepping up to beat a guy like Groves, Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez, Chris Eubank Jr., Anthony Dirrell, James DeGale [before his fight with Badou Jack], Jack, Jessie Hart and David Benavidez. Those guys are all a cut above Smith in the minds of many boxing fans. It’s difficult to peg where Smith is in the pecking order in the 168 pound division, but I think he’s more at home at #6 right now, but he’s not stable in that position. I think there are guys that will be moving up the ranks that will beat him.
Tonight’s Groves vs. Smith World Boxing Super Series final fight comes down to these areas:
Power – This was a tie. Groves’ right hand power is as good as Smith’s left hook, which is clearly his best punch in his arsenal.
Speed – Groves is the faster fighter of the two in terms of hand and foot speed. Smith is just a slow banger, who does well when he has an opponent that stationary and standing directly in front of him for him to tee off on them at all.
Defense – Groves has the better defense. Smith’s offense is his defense, and it’s always been like this
Experience – This area overwhelmingly goes to Groves. He’s fought Carl Froch twice, Badou Jack, Martin Murray, Jamie Cox, James DeGale [when he was still good], Denis Douglin, Eduard Gutknecht, Fedor Chudinov, Glen Johnson, Paul Smith and Kenny Anderson. The only guys Smith has fought with any degree of talent is Holzken, Rocky Fielding, Skoglund
Ring generalship – Groves takes this area by a wide margin. He’s the much better thinker in the ring than Smith
Punch resistance – Smith possibly has the better chin of the two. It’s hard to say for sure that he can take a better punch than Groves, because his opposition has been horrible most of his career. When you match a fighter against the low level opposition that Smith has fought, of course they’re going to have little problems. Smith basically has been bum rushing his weak-punching, fodder-like opposition and getting them out of there before they’ve laid so much of a glove on him. Smith hasn’t been hurt because he still hasn’t fought anyone halfway good
Conditioning – Smith appears to have the better conditioning. Groves’ stamina is something awful, and it always has been during his career. However, so few fighters are able to make it into the later rounds of their fights against Groves to expose this flaw
Mobility – Groves is the big winner in this category. Smith moves very slowly around the ring, and it often looks like he has two left feet. Movement does not come easy to Smith. He’s more of a plodder unfortunately
Groves’ career in boxing could be over tonight, win or lose. He’s coming off of a bad shoulder injury to his left shoulder, and although he claims that it’s 100 percent, the fact that he’s hinting at retirement suggests otherwise. If the shoulder was fine, Groves wouldn’t be talking about hanging up the gloves, believe me. I wouldn’t be surprised if Groves goes out there tonight and only rarely uses his left arm at all. It’s sad to say that Groves might not need more than just his right hand against a limited fighter like the 28-year-old Groves. Great talent, Smith is not. He’s just a tall, stork-like slugger, who has been carefully matched his entire career by his management in putting him in with a lot of domestic level fodder and fringe level guys. I mean, if you let someone like Chris Eubank Jr. fight all opposition that Smith has, he would likely arrive at the same 24-0 record, but perhaps with a better KO percentage than his 71% that he currently has. It’s difficult to imagine Eubank Junior failing to knock out the likes of Holzken, Skoglund, Rebrasse, Sjekloca, Biosse, James Tucker (8-62-4) and Dan Blackwell (7-68). Callum Smith went the distance with all of those fighters.
Prediction
Groves will win a comfortable 12 round unanimous decision tonight over a completely over-matched Smith. Groves will befuddle Smith, keeping him at range all night long, and not allowing him to use his left hook. Smith has already been shown to lack the long range fighting ability to land right hands. I’m not sure why that is though, as he’s normally taller than his opponents at 6’3″. In theory, Smith should be able to get the better of Groves from the outside, but he won’t be able to do it. Smith has been taught wrong by his handlers, and he fights more like a short guy than a taller fighter. As such, Groves is going to pick Smith apart tonight and embarrass him.