By Sean Jones: Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 KOs) fought what many consider the perfect fight against Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (49-1-2, 34 KOs) last September on HBO PPV, and yet he had to settle for a 12 round draw in Las Vegas, Nevada.
I reviewed the first Alvarez vs. Golovkin fight in slow motion for this Article, and I scored it over again just for the sake of being fair to both guys. In reviewing the Canelo-GGG fight for the second time from their September 16th bout, I had Golovkin winning 9 rounds to 3. The rounds that Golovkin won – 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11 and 12 – were so conclusive that there was no way that you could see them going the other way.
In watching the Canelo-GGG fight again, I’m left wondering whether Golovkin can beat Canelo by a decision. With scoring as bad as we saw in the first fight, I have doubts whether Golovkin can beat Canelo unless he knocks him out. It’s looking like the rematch will be taking place in Las Vegas once again. Golovkin’s management wants the second fight to be staged elsewhere outside of Nevada, but they don’t have the A-side pull to get their way.
It’s up to Canelo where the fight takes place. He’s the one that has already decided that he wants to rest for 8 months until May 5 before he fights again. Golovkin was ready and willing to fight Canelo in December, but he didn’t want to take the fight. So instead, Golovkin is aged another 8 months this move by Canelo to make the rematch wait until May 5.
In reviewing the Canelo-GGG fight in slow motion, I was able to see how most of Canelo’s punches were blocked by Golovkin. In watching the same rounds in normal speed, the cheering from the pro-Canelo crowd for his blocked punches made it seem like he was landing. The reality is he wasn’t landing. Canelo’s shots were being blocked, but the cheering from the Las Vegas crowd made it appear that Canelo was doing more than he actually was.
These are some of the things I noticed in re-watching the Canelo-GGG fight:
• Most of Canelo’s shots were blocked
• Canelo missing frequently with his power shots
• Canelo was only able to fight hard for 40 to 45 seconds at the start of each round
• Golovkin fought better than people think in rounds 11 and 12. The judges gave Canelo the last 3 rounds. In seeing the fight in slow motion, Canelo was getting nailed repeatedly with Golovkin’s jab, and missing with his own power shots. In the 12th, Golovkin hit Canelo with a flurry of shots with time running out. The punches had Canelo stumbling and looking helpless
• The crowd made it appear Canelo was doing better than Golovkin due to their cheering
• Canelo looked very heavy for the fight. He put too much muscle weight on in a short period of time during training camp. Canelo’s physique never looked like that in any of his previous fights as a pro. Canelo transformed his physique quickly during training camp, and that hurt his ability to fight hard. Canelo should have come into the fight with his normal physique without putting on so much muscle weight. If Canelo bulks up for the rematch, he’s going to have the same kinds of problems with his stamina that he did in their September 16 fight.
• Canelo was just pot shotting. He couldn’t do more than throw single pot shots. There no continuous work from Canelo. When he did throw more than one punch at a time, it was only because Golovkin was forcing him to. Canelo did not want to fight hard. Golovkin was like the teacher, pushing his lazy student to put out some effort, but he couldn’t do it. Canelo didn’t have the ability or the ambition to fight hard for more than the first minute of each round. That’s why it was so surprising that 2 of the judges failed to give Golovkin the win. How could they give it to Canelo when he was gassed out and red-faced after 45 seconds of each round?
• Canelo changed his fighting style 100 percent in going from being a pressure fighter to that of a mover. Canelo had never been known as a fighter that used a lot of movement in his fights. He doesn’t have the foot speed and conditioning to move, and yet that’s the tactic that he used against Golovkin. It was pure survival-oriented type of fighting for Canelo, and it was difficult to give rounds based on him evading Golovkin and avoiding the fight. This fight was supposed to be a war. That’s what Canelo’s promoters at Golden Boy Promotions sold the fight as being. Instead, Canelo was running from the battle field. He might as well have had the white flag up while he was in the full retreat mode, because he wasn’t trying to make a fight of it.
• Canelo’s strategy appeared to be based on him stealing rounds by landing early, and then running for the last 2 minutes to avoid getting hit. It was the weakest game plans that I’ve ever seen from a Golden Boy fighter. Canelo is a supposed to be a star, but he wouldn’t stay in the pocket and fight like a star. Say what you want about Floyd Mayweather Jr. having a boring fighting style. At least Mayweather stays in the pocket and fights. Canelo wanted no part of fighting Golovkin. It was all about landing some pot shots at the start of the round, and then getting on his bike to elude him for the last 2 minutes.
• Canelo fighting with his back against the ropes. Canelo had fought with his back against the ropes in his controversial 12 round decision win over Austin Trout in the past, and the judges rewarded him by giving him the decision. Canelo fighting like that against Golovkin was strange, because it such a negative style to use against the best fighter in the middleweight division. Surely, the judges couldn’t give Canelo rounds for fighting with his back against the ropes and eating jabs for 12 rounds. Unfortunately, the judges that was assigned to the fight by the Nevada Commission liked the negative style that Canelo used in the fight.
It’s important that Golovkin’s promoter Tom Loeffler play an active role in making sure that quality judges are picked out for the rematch. If he had put his foot down for the first fight with 2 of the judges that are assigned for the fight, he could have filtered them out and the outcome probably would have been a lot different. The scoring was very bad in my opinion. You had one judges scoring it 10 rounds to 2 for Canelo. Another judge had the fight a draw at 114-114. That’s the judge that had Canelo winning round 7, which was easily Golovkin’s best round of the fight. That was the round after Canelo had embarrassed Golovkin by putting him in a headlock and then hitting him with while he was helpless. Golovkin looked like he got angry from disrespected that way.
In the 7th, Golovkin tore into Canelo and battered him. Shockingly, the judge that scored the fight 114-114 had Canelo winning the 7th. Golovkin would have won the fight if the judge had scored the fight the way that the other 2 judges did. They both had Golovkin winning the 7th, as did HBO unofficial scorer Harold Lederman. Just that one judge thought Canelo won the 7th round. Loeffler is going to need to make sure that competent judges are working the fight. If he just rubber stamps whoever is assigned by the Nevada State Athletic Commission, then we could see the same kind of outcome as we saw with the first Canelo vs. GGG fight. There needs to be quality judges working.
Canelo making Golovkin wait another 8 months before giving him the rematch appears to be a tactical move on his part in order to age him more. Golovkin probably should have given Canelo an ultimatum at that point. Golovkin had already been aged 2 years in having to wait for the Canelo fight. Waiting another year on top of that, that shouldn’t have been agreed on. I think it would have been wiser for Golovkin to give Canelo the optioning of fighting him in December or January or never. I wouldn’t have ever agreed to wait until May 5 if I was Golovkin, because it’s so transparent what Canelo and Golden Boy Promotions are doing. They’re aging the 35-year-old Golovkin more by making him wait another year. 8 months is the better part of the year. Canelo didn’t take a lot of punishment in the Golovkin fight. Yeah, Canelo was hit with a lot of jabs, but that’s about it. He wasn’t hit with a lot of power shots because Golovkin was mostly staying on the outside, and Canelo was running around the ring to avoid getting hit.
Canelo will probably try and build on what he did in the later rounds, and use that in the first 6 rounds in the rematch if there is one. That means Canelo will likely try and pressure Golovkin by coming at him from the start instead of waiting until things are bleak in the last 3 rounds to try and steal a victory or a draw. The problem that strategy is Canelo doesn’t have the stamina to fight harder for more than 45 seconds. I don’t see that changing in the rematch. I don’t think it will. Canelo has never had good conditioning, and it’s gotten worse with him suddenly bulking up with a bunch of new muscles that he’s put on. Canelo’s conditioning is like an older fighter, not someone that is only 27. Golovkin is the older guy, but he appeared to be the younger fighter in terms of conditioning. Canelo was really laboring throughout the fight, even in the later rounds. Golovkin was the stronger guy and the one capable of fighting hard for 3 minutes of each round.
Canelo ate far too many jabs for me to give him the win. Canelo is going to have to do something to keep from getting hit by Triple G’s jabs in the rematch. If a set of quality judges are assigned to the rematch, they’re not going to give Canelo the win if he’s hit by Golovkin’s continuous jabs all night long like he was in their first fight. Since I don’t see Canelo’s shorter arms growing by the time the two fighters face each other in the rematch, it’s going to be important for the Golden Boy star to take the fight to Golovkin A LOT MORE. Apart from poor judging, Canelo can’t beat Golovkin by staying with his back against the ropes eating power jabs for 12 rounds, and running from the fight. I don’t think that’s going to work for Canelo. That’s why I believe that it’s important that Canelo take the fight to Golovkin each round, and not run from him or fight against the ropes. Canelo is going to have to get in better condition for him to be able to fight hard for 3 minutes of each round. Working on conditioning and losing the muscle that he put on should be priority one for Canelo. He’s not conditioned well enough to give Golovkin the type of fight that he needs for him to win a conclusive division.
In the rematch, Canelo will probably try and build on what he was able to do successfully in the first fight. That means we’re going to see Canelo doing these things:
• Trying to outbox GGG
• Applying pressure during strategic intervals in rounds. Canelo’s trainer Eddie Reynoso will likely have him come forward briefly in each of the 3 minutes of each round, so that the judges aren’t just seeing him attack in the first minute. It’ll be a strategy to make it appear that Canelo is doing more, but in reality it’ll likely be only brief attacks and not prolonged ones. The reason why it won’t be prolonged attacks by Canelo is obvious. He doesn’t have the stamina to fight hard for a full 3 minutes. He just can’t do it, and I don’t think he ever will. Canelo has the wrong type of physique. It’s like asking a short bodybuilder to race a track athlete in 1600 meter race. The bodybuilder might do well in the first 100 meters, but he’ll be dog tired from that point on. Canelo is built for fighting only in short duration spurts. He’ll never ever be able to fight hard for a long 3 minute round, and definitely not for a full 12 rounds. He’s not made that kind of endurance. That’s why it’s important for Golovkin to jump on Canelo and force him to brawl for a full 3 minutes of every round. Golovkin didn’t do that. He stayed on the outside in the first fight, and that was a mistake. You don’t beat a muscular fighter with poor conditioning by jabbing him. You force him into a long sprint and make him gas out. That’s how Golovkin or anyone can beat Canelo. You make him fight hard for the full three minutes, and he’ll eventually gas out and useless. But you can’t let Canelo run the way Golovkin was letting him. You can’t stay on top of him.
Golovkin is going to have to put way more pressure on Canelo than he did last time. He’s got to know that Canelo will try and steal the rounds like he did last time, but he can’t let him do that. Golovkin must know that even if it appears he’s winning, he probably won’t be given the rounds unless he’s knocking Canelo Alvarez down and really brutalizing him. I don’t see Golovkin getting a decision against Canelo no matter what he does. For that reason, I think it’s imperative that Golovkin go out and treat the fight just like he did his match against Kassim Ouma in 2011. Golovkin got in medium to close range against Ouma in that fight and threw nonstop punches for 10 rounds in knocking him out. The strategy worked for Golovkin. To be sure, it was a grueling fight for Golovkin, but he eventually wore Ouma down and got the stoppage. If Golovkin fights like that against Canelo, I think he’ll knock him out a lot sooner than he did with Ouma. The reason for that is Canelo doesn’t have nearly the same kind of stamina that Ouma possessed back then. There’s no comparison. Canelo has horrible stamina. The only reason he does well is because he has fast hand speed and he’s fairly heavy handed.
In an ideal world, Golovkin would be given a decision for staying on the outside and jabbing Canelo for 12 rounds the way Floyd Mayweather Jr. did. But we’re talking about the most popular fighter in North America. You’re not going to beat Canelo by a decision. I personally don’t believe that Canelo can be beaten by a decision. After seeing Canelo’c controversial fights against Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout and Golovkin, I don’t think he can be beaten by a decision by anyone but Mayweather.
