By Scott Gilfoid: Billy Joe Saunders is close to getting his dream come true in a fight against Saul Canelo Alvarez or Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Of those 2, it’s probable that Saunders will be meeting up with Golovkin next year.
(Photo credit: World Boxing Council)
The success that Saunders (26-0, 12 KOs) had last Saturday night in beating the slow-footed, short and confused looking David Lemieux (38-4, 33 KOs) may prove to be meaningless when he gets inside the ring with Golovkin. He’s a much different type of fighter in terms of height, reach, power and overall boxing skills. It could very well be a royal disaster for Saunders.
Golovkin will give Sanders with these tactics:
• Cutting off the ring – Golovkin will cut off the ring on Saunders all night long. If Saunders is going to run from Golovkin, which I suspect will be Plan-A, it’s not going to work. Golovkin is an expert at cutting off the ring against runners like Saunders. Once Golovkin catches up to a likely exhausted Saunders, he’ll have a good chance of knocking him out in the later rounds
• Out-jabbing Saunders – Golovkin has the superior jab between him and Saunders. For Saunders to have a chance to beat Golovkin, he’s going to need to throw more than jabs. He’s not going to beat Golovkin the way he did Lemieux, because Golovkin is a lot faster on his feet and he’ll be ready for the running
• Forcing Saunders to exchange
Golovkin will beat Saunders in my view, but it won’t be an exciting fight because of the spoiling tactics that Billy Joe will be using. If a fighter’s main goal in a fight is to survive, they’re almost impossible to beat if they’re well-conditioned enough to move for 12 rounds. Saunders will come into the Golovkin fight ready for a track meet. Saunders will be conditioned to run for 12 rounds, and hold every chance he can get. There will be no chance of winning with that kind of style, because Saunders won’t be able to depend on getting the better of Golovkin from the outside. Golovkin has the better jab than Saunders, period. There’s no question that Golovkin’s power jab is world’s better than Saunder’s weak jab.
The things that Saunders was able to do against Lemieux, he won’t be able to get away with against Golovkin. For the most part, Saunders used movement and clinching to nullify Lemieux’s offense last Saturday night. Saunders was a shorter version of Hughie Fury in the Lemieux fight. It was not pretty to watch Saunders fight, because it was pure spoiling. Saunders would jab, and then retreat all around the ring when Lemieux would come forward trying to engage. When Lemieux finally would get close enough to throw a punch, Saunders would grab him in a clinch to stop him from throwing. It was pure Hughie Fury. Watch Hughie’s fight with Joseph Parker from last September and then watch the Lemieux-Saunders fight, and you’ll see that Saunders did the same thing Hughie did. The only difference was Saunders was able to land more shots because of Lemieux’s defensive problems.
The element of surprise is now gone for Saunders. Boxing world saw how he ran from Lemieux for 12 rounds, so he’s not going to be able to pull that trick out of his hat against Golovkin and win with it. Golovkin will be training specifically to cut off the ring on Saunders and knock him out. If Saunders is going to use some other trick, it’s going to have to involve actually fighting instead of running, because that trick isn’t going to work against GGG. It’s already been used by Saunders, so the element of surprise is now gone.
For Saunders’ sake, Golovkin needs to lose to Canelo so that he doesn’t have to face him. If GGG is the fighter that Saunders faces next year, I don’t give him a chance in a million to win. Golovkin is too good at beating runners. The slow footed Canelo would struggle more with Saunders’ style of fighting, but I don’t think he’s going to waste time taking the fight. Saunders looked so bad with his spoiling tactics against Lemieux, I can’t see Canelo and his promoters at Golden Boy Promotions ever taking the fight with him. It’s a guaranteed bad looking fight for Canelo no matter how the fight ends.
If Canelo must chase Saunders down for 10 rounds before knocking him out, the fight is still going to be an awful bore to the U.S boxing fans, who prefer to see action rather than running. The only reason Golovkin is interested in fighting Saunders is because he wants to capture the last remaining title in the middleweight division that’s not in his possession. Saunders has the WBO belt, and Golovkin wants it. If not for that, Saunders wouldn’t be on Golovkin’s map. There are much more interesting fights out there at 160 for Golovkin than Saunders with his dull, running fighting style. The U.S boxing fans want to see Golovkin fight Jermall Charlo, Daniel Jacobs and Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Those guys come to fight and entertain rather than running.