Jessie Vargas vs. Aaron Herrera preview

By Boxing News - 12/15/2017 - Comments

Image: Jessie Vargas vs. Aaron Herrera preview

By Allan Fox: Jessie Vargas will be coming off of a long 13-month layoff tonight to face journeyman Aaron Herrera (33-7-1, 22 KOs) tonight in a 10 round fight on Premier Boxing Champions on FS1 and Fox Deportes at the Pioneer Event Center in Lancaster, California. The televised event starts at 10:00 p.m. ET/7:00 p.m. PT.

Herrera could be a tough fight for Vargas if he’s not on his A-game. Herrera has recent losses to Brandon Rios, Regis Prograis, Mike Reed and Pedro Campa. Herrera loses to the good fighters, and beats the B-level guys. He’s got some pop in his punches. Vargas has shown to be vulnerable against punchers in the past in losses to Manny Pacquiao and Tim Bradley. Vargas was arguably beaten by Anton Novikov in 2014. A lot of boxing fans thought Vargas deserved a loss against Novikov. Vargas also had problems in beating Khabib Allakhverdiev in 2014.

The 28-year-old Vargas has been resting up since his 12 round decision loss to Manny Pacquiao last year in November. Instead of taking the loss in stride and staying busy, Vargas has been out of action not fighting. Now a year older and less relevant in the 147 lb. division than he was last year, Vargas has to start all over in facing a journeyman level opponent in 28-year-old Herrera and hope he doesn’t lose to him. There’s a right way and a wrong way to respond to a loss like the one Vargas suffered against Pacquiao.

You’d have to say that sitting out of the ring over 1 year is the wrong way to deal with a defeat. Vargas could have fought 3 times in that same time frame, and he’d be in position to fight for another world title. Instead, Vargas is nowhere to be seen in the IBF, WBA and WBO’s top 15 ranking at 147. The World Boxing Council has been kind to Vargas in ranking at No.4 with their organization despite his long layoff.

After winning the vacant WBO welterweight title last year in March in stopping Sadam Ali in the 9th round, Jessie Vargas lost the title in his first defense against Pacquiao by a one-sided 12 round unanimous decision on November 15, 2016. Vargas was knocked down in round 2, and he was never able to get untracked against Pacquiao. That was a very conservative Pacquiao, who took very few chances in pounding out an easy 12 round decision.

Vargas is no longer with Top Rank. He feels that he’s got a situation now with Al Haymon, as he has a lot of the best welterweights signed with him. Vargas is in a good position where he can fight for a world title or face some of the contenders that are signed with Haymon. Vargas expects to be in a big fight in 2018.

”I thank [Top Rank] for the opportunities, but [Haymon] has all the welterweights, so I have options,” said Vargas to ESPN.com. ”They have a good plan for me. I am happy with what they have planned. I expect to be in the biggest fight next year and I’m looking forward to becoming world champion once again,” said Vargas.

Vargas can certainly fight for a world title in 2018 against the likes of WBA/WBC 147 lb. champion Keith ‘One Time’ Thurman or IBF 147 lb. champion Errol Spence Jr., but I have my reservations about him beating either of those guys. Vargas doesn’t match up well against either of those champions. Vargas lacks the power to compete with those type of welterweights. The one champion Vargas would have a good chance of beating is WBO champion Jeff Horn, but he’s with Top Rank, and there’s little chance of him getting a fight against him. Now that Vargas is with Haymon, it’s not likely he’ll get a title shot against Horn. Besides, Top Rank is going to be matching Horn against another one of their fighters in their stable in Terence Crawford in early 2018.

Once Crawford wins the WBO welterweight title, Top Rank will probably give the green light to fight any of the welterweights signed with Haymon, including Vargas. They’re going to need to have Crawford fight everybody in the 147 lb. division for him to become a PPV star. He’s not going to become a star only fighting Top Rank guys like Horn and Konstantin Ponomarev. But for the time being, Vargas has next to no chance of fighting Horn for his old WBO title.

Vargas had hoped to fight a rematch with Tim Bradley, but that match failed to take place after he retired from boxing. That would have been a big fight for Vargas. Bradley had no reason to continue his career after his final cash out fight against Pacquiao, which he lost last year in April. Vargas could have stayed with Top Rank, but he opted to move on. Had Vargas stayed with Top Rank, he could have fought Crawford, but that ultimately might have been a bad experience for him due to his counter punching style of fighting. Vargas would stand a better chance against Spence and Thurman.

I wouldn’t say that Vargas has a good shot at beating Spence and Thurman, but he at least he’ll be able to land shots on them without hitting air all night and being countered the way he would against Crawford. It’s going to take someone really special to beat Crawford. I suspect what ultimately will beat Crawford is father time. He’ll get old sooner or later, and get beaten by a younger pressure fighter. Crawford is already 30. It doesn’t take long for 30-year-olds to age to the point where they’re getting beaten by the young lions.

Vargas is no longer trained by Dewey Cooper. He’s with former 154lb. world champion Mike ‘The Body Snatcher’ McCallum. That should be an interesting pairing. McCallum was a superb body puncher during his career. Perhaps he can teach Vargas to focus more on throwing shots downstairs instead of being a head hunter like he is now. Vargas isn’t a big puncher to the head. If McCallum can get Vargas to throw more body shots, he might be able to improve enough to give guys like Thurman and Spence trouble. Spence is a good body puncher as well. Thurman doesn’t handle body shots as good as he does in taking punches to the head. If Vargas can focus his attention to Thurman’s body, he might have a shot at beating him in the future.

Vargas wants Thurman, Spence and Danny Garcia. He’d also like to face Pacquiao in a rematch, although he realizes the chances of that happening are nonexistent now.

“I would also like to [fight for] the WBC and WBA titles and they are held by Keith Thurman, so that’s a fight — a fight, I am very interested in. Danny Garcia is also a fight some people have asked for.”

Danny Garcia is pretty selective in the guys he faces. He’s supposed to be fighting Brandon Rios next on February 17. Vargas might be a little too live of a body for Garcia to fight him. It would be a good fight though. If Garcia is not interested in fighting for a world title against Errol Spence and not interested in fighting Shawn Porter, then there’s not a lot of options for him other than Thurman, Vargas and maybe someone like Amir Khan. I doubt that Khan fight him. His knockout loss to Saul Canelo Alvarez last year seems to have taken his interest from boxing away. Khan hasn’t fought since that loss. Vargas is probably not in the plans for Khan or Garcia unfortunately.