By Jeff Aranow: Gennady “GGG” Golovkin will control Saul “Canelo” Alvarez like he’s done with all of his previous fights, says his trainer Abel Sanchez. He feels he’s got the “best horse” in the race this Saturday night, and he expects the much better punching power of Golovkin and the constant pressure he puts on the 5’8” Canelo to wear down the Mexican star until he’s ready to be knocked out. Sanchez cannot see Canelo (49-1-1, 34 KOs) lasting past the 11th round.
Canelo will be trying his best to get the win this Saturday night against the unbeaten Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) on HBO pay-per-view at the sold out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. If Canelo beats Golovkin, he’ll be vaulted to the No.1 position in the middleweight division. Canelo will also likely be pushed to No.1 in Ring Magazine’s pound-for-pound ratings. That would be a huge honor obviously for the 27-year-old Canelo.
It doesn’t mean Canelo would be able to keep either of those spots, as he would be expected to beat Golovkin in a rematch, and then face the likes of Danny Jacobs and Jermall Charlo. To stay number 1 at 160, it’s going to require a lot of work for Canelo. He can’t dodge those guys. Canelo didn’t fight the really dangerous guys when he was seen as the No.1 fighter at 154. He never fought the Charlos, Jarrett Hurd, Erickson Lubin or Demetrius Andrade. Those guys all wanted to fight Canelo, but they never given a shot.
“I have the best horse,” said Abel Sanchez to Behind The Ropes in talking about Golovkin. “I have a guy that is going to go into the fight and control it the way he always does, and he hits a lot harder than Canelo. I have a guy that had 350 amateur fights, and a 4-time amateur champion. He was a silver medalist in the Olympics. This is not a situation where it’s going to be a different fight,” said Sanchez.
Golovkin will need some kind of strategy to deal with Canelo’s head movement. He’s going to make it hard for Golovkin to hit him with anything to the head. Since Golovkin is mainly a head hunter, he’ll need to adjust to throwing more body shots unless he’s going to stubbornly throw power punches at Canelo’s elusive head all night long. Golovkin could wind up getting countered to pieces if he fights like that. He still might knockout Canelo the way that Julian Jackson stopped Terry Norris in their fight, but he’ll look bad until he finally lands a huge punch on the button.
It takes patience and a lot of persistence to stick with a game plan that isn’t working. Golovkin would have to deal with looking bad for however many rounds before he finally catches Canelo with a big head shot to KO him. I think it would be better to go after Canelo’s body to try and knock him out with a hard body shot.
“He’s got good hand speed, good combination, very good head movement, and he’s got good trainers that are going to change his tactics. But when the fight starts, we don’t know how the 2 stars are going to mesh,” said Sanchez in talking about Canelo.
Canelo’s trainers will have him using a variety of different strategies on Saturday night, but it could come down to basically 2 things. Canelo will either back up or defend or he’ll come forward to try and pressure Golovkin. Canelo won’t be able to use lateral movement against Triple G, as he’s too slow-footed to win with that kind of style. Canelo has to either go backwards and stay on the ropes or come after Golovkin to force him into a brawl that will wind up being a survival of the fittest. A fight like that could go either way. Golovkin had problems with Danny Jacobs’s aggression, and Canelo will be as heavy as him.
“Danny Jacobs is the second best middleweight in the world,” said Sanchez. “Canelo hasn’t fought in the middleweight division. Jacobs is 6’1”, and by the time he got inside the ring, he was 180+. Canelo is 5’8”, 5’8 ½”and he is not the talented fighter that Jacobs is. I think if we had reversed the 2 fights and had Jacobs fight Canelo, Jacobs beats Canelo, and Golovkin knocks out Chavez Jr., the way that Chavez Jr. was that night. At 164, he was a depleted fighter. This guy [Canelo] couldn’t do nothing with him. To me, Jacobs is the tougher fight,” said Sanchez.
Canelo is a different type of fighter that Jacobs is. Canelo might not possess the engine to fight Golovkin for a full 12 round fight the way that Jacobs did. It takes stamina to be able to fight hard for 3 minutes of each round. I’m not sure that Canelo has the engine to fight like that. He’s more of a guy that will fight briefly for 10 seconds and then he’ll need to catch his breath. That’s really the major weakness in Canelo’s game. He does not have the cardiovascular system to fight hard the way that the best fighters do. Canelo is lucky that he’s able to hurt his 147 and 154 lb. opponents before they’ve get to him with their stamina.
