By Dan Ambrose: Equipped with his experience from beating the likes of Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, Amir Khan and James Kirkland, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) believes he can topple undefeated IBF/IBO/WBA/WBC middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) from the unbeaten ranks on September 16 in their fight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Canelo blames his loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. from 4 years ago on his lack of experience, and he thinks the fight would have a different outcome if the two of them were to face each other now. By the same token, the 27-year-old Canelo believes he has enough know how to hand the 35-year-old Golovkin his first loss of his 10-year pro career when the two of them meet next month on HBO pay-per-view.
“I’ve definitely learned a lot,” said Canelo in talking about the experience he’s gotten in the last 4 years of his career. “I have more experience now. I feel more confident. I’m more of a mature fighter now. Obviously not just that fight, but the fights that followed have got me to this point.”
Canelo’s experience is not the type of experience that you would hope for in someone taking on a wrecking machine like Golovkin. There really isn’t anyone on Canelo’s resume in the last 4 years that will prepare him for Golovkin. Even Mayweather isn’t the type of opponent you would like Canelo to be fighting to get him ready for Golovkin.
Mayweather was tapping Canelo for 12 rounds with jabs. The style that Mayweather used in beating Canelo is totally unlike the style we’re going to see from GGG on September 16. Canelo didn’t even solve Mayweather’s style. Canelo was a failure in that fight. If I were to grade Canelo’s performance against Mayweather, I would have to give him an ‘F’ for failure.
In Canelo’s fight against Erislandy Lara in 2014, he failed to show that he had learned from the mistakes he made against Mayweather. Lara was able to jab Canelo all night long and limit him to just 31 head shots landed in the entire fight. Canelo beat Lara, but it was clearly a robbery of the worst kind. Canelo lost that fight by 9 rounds to 3 score on Boxing News 24’ scorecard. There no improvement from Canelo. You can’t count Canelo’s failures as experience to help him beat Golovkin.
These are Canelo’s other fights he’s had in the last 3 years:
– James Kirkland
– Miguel Cotto
– Amir Khan
– Liam Smith
– Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
That’s not broad experience for Canelo. Those are pretty much just bodies and not highly talented fighters. Cotto WAS a good fighter many years ago, but he’s not the best at 154. We already saw Cotto lose to Austin Trout in 2012, and he hasn’t beaten anyone good since that defeat. Cotto never avenged the loss to Trout, and if you threw him in with Jermell Charlo, Lara or Jarrett Hurd, I think he would lose to all of them. Even Kell Brook, a new comer to the 154lb division, would likely beat Cotto.
Fighting Amir Khan is not vast experience. It would be wonderful experience for Canelo if he were fighting a weak-chinned welterweight on September 16 instead of the best middleweight in the division in Golovkin.
Liam Smith is not the type of fighter that you can say that Canelo gained a wealth of experience against. Smith was viewed as a paper champion when Canelo vacated his WBC middleweight title last year and moved down to 154 to challenge him for his WBO title. Smith has never beaten any of the talented fighters at junior middleweight. Smith’s best wins have come against the likes of John Thompson, Liam Williams, Predrag Radosevic and Jason Welborn. Those are the best guys Liam Smith has fought. It looked bad that Canelo chose to give up his WBC middleweight title and move down to 154 and challenge Liam Smith of all people. If Canelo wanted to pick up experience, then fighting Smith was not the best way to do it. Canelo should have fought Erislandy Lara in a rematch to prove to the boxing world that he really was the better fighter, because he certainly didn’t prove it the first time around in 2014. Canelo should have fought Jermall Charlo. He was holding the IBF junior middleweight title last year.
”Yes, I’ve changed and I learned from it, and I just feel I’m more of a complete fighter now. I have more experience, and the confidence is probably the one thing that I can point out the most,” said Canelo.
There are some in the boxing world that think Canelo is a better fighter now than he was in the past. I don’t agree. Trainer Virgil Hunter doesn’t view Canelo as having improved with the fights he’s had. Hunter believes that improvement only occurs when a fighter faces opposition that makes him stretch and show his potential. Hunter doesn’t see the guys that Golden Boy Promotions has been feeding Canelo as being good enough to show whether there is improvement in him or not. Hunter wasn’t impressed with Canelo’s win over Kirkland, who he notes hadn’t fought in 2 years at the time he was picked out to fight him.
If Canelo is going to beat Golovkin, it’s not going to be due to the experience or the improvement that supposedly Canelo has shown in the last 4 years. It’s going to be due to Golden Boy Promotions waiting until Golovkin had turned 35-years-old, and wasn’t looking as dominating as he had in the past. In other words, if Canelo is going to beat Golovkin, it’s because they waited him out until he got old enough to beat. That’s not experience. That’s waiting someone out until they get old. The problem with Canelo is he won’t be able to continue to do that with the other fighters in the division. Jermall Charlo is the same age, and Danny Jacobs is a young 30, and not showing any signs of age. Those guys are going to be just as much of a problem for Canelo as Triple G.
“Obviously in that fight with Floyd, I think the only reason he beat me was because of experience,” said Canelo. ”He had more experience. He had more championship fights under his belt. And this fight, it’s going to be different. I have a lot of experience now. And I’m not going to let that happen again in this fight because I have more confidence and I have more experience.”
I don’t think Canelo beats Mayweather even now with him 40-years-old and coming from a 2-year layoff. I think it would sound better if Canelo just acknowledged that he was beaten by a better fighter in Mayweather and just leave it at that. Mayweather would jab Canelo all night long and avoid his short power punches. What Mayweather exposed in the Canelo fight was the fact that he can’t stop a jab, and that he’s helpless when he’s unable to land his counter left hook. That punch is by far Canelo’s best weapon in his entire arsenal of punches.
Canelo has a short right hand that he likes to throw, but he cannot throw from long range because of his heavy physique. Canelo can only throw it from short distances, and it’s not a huge punch by any means. There are welterweights with more power in their shots than Canelo in my opinion. Errol Spence Jr. and Keith Thurman both have more power in either hand than Canelo does.
What makes Canelo good is he’s able to throw fast combinations for a brief period and then step back to keep from getting hit. That in a nutshell is what makes Canelo good. He’s not a good fighter when it comes to fighting on the outside or dealing with a jab. He’s only good at throwing quick bursts of punches and then stepping back a foot to keep from getting hit in return. Canelo reminds me a lot of super flyweight Carlos Cuadras. He fights just like Cuadras, but not quite as skilled. Cuadras can do a lot of different things that Canelo isn’t capable of doing like moving around the ring, and fighting without gassing out. I see Cuadras as a better version of Canelo, except in a different weight class.
If Canelo tries to throw his sustained combinations against Golovkin, he’s going to get hit with something in between and that could spell the end of him for that fight. Canelo will need limit how many punches he throws in his bursts if he doesn’ want to get nailed by GGG. Canelo is a good fighter, but he’s not good enough in any one area for him to defeat Triple G in my view. Canelo needs too many rest breaks after he throws his flurries for him to do well against Golovkin. Canelo can’t move well due to his short, stubby legs. He’s built like a little short wrestler, and he’s not able to move around the ring at all. Golovkin will effortlessly cut off the ring on Canelo if he tries to move on September 16.
