By Hector Gonzalez: There’s a paradox happening from predictions being made for the September 16th fight between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Gennady “GGG” Golovkin at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The paradox is that while most boxing fans, even Vegas odds are favoring Golovkin to be the victor, many professional Boxers are saying something different. Bernard Hopkins, for example, along with many others are predicting Canelo will defeat Golovkin.
As a seasoned boxing fan, just like the next season fan knows, prediction could be bold and sometimes unnecessary. Sure we as fans will favor a fighter over the next and many times will know the likely outcome of a fight based on the history and skill level of fighters. For example, we were all certain that Canelo would defeat Khan, or that Mayweather would defeat Andre Berto. These examples are likely scenarios. In the case of Canelo vs. GGG something different is happening, there is a clear division of opinion and the unpopular opinion seems to be coming from the professionals themselves.
Take for instance the number of fans that believe that Canelo will be KO’d by Gennady. It’s all over the web on all message boards. The popular belief is that Golovkin will be too strong for Canelo, too big, to powerful and therefore Canelo ultimately succumbing to Golovkin’s power like all of his opponents have. This opinion is even backed by Vegas at the moment as the 1.5 to 1 favorite. The professionals are not saying that though.
Andre Berto boldly predicted that Canelo is going to KO Golovkin. It sounds unfamiliar but the real question is why professional boxers and commentators saying something very different than the fans are? Mayweather’s gym for example believes Canelo will be the victor. Even when fighters are favoring Golovkin, none are predicting a knockout from Golovkin and many are calling it a 50/50 match. WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder and Brandon Rios are also picking Canelo and while I’m aware that some fighters such as Daniel Jacobs are picking Golovkin as the favorite, none of them are calling it a blowout such as some fans are suggesting.
Here is my personal take. It’s 50/50 with slight favor on Canelo. There are some key toss up scenarios that have to be taken into consideration. 1. Canelo has decent head movement, especially walking backwards. Will Golovkin be able to connect on Canelo like many fans are suggesting and 2. Golovkin appears to get hit easily, he takes shots well but will Canelo land effectively enough to hurt Golovkin. I think the fight will come down to those two things. I believe that Canelo’s head movement and counter ability are underrated, therefore I think that Golovkin, even though he’s stronger will not land on Canelo effectively enough to substantially hurt him. Additionally Canelo’s punching ability is also underrated, for instance, Canelo delivers hooks to the body from long range, as an effective counter puncher, has a sneaky upper cut and can throw in combinations. Given this scenario, in essence, I see Canelo hitting Golovkin at a more accurate rate than Golovkin will hit Canelo.