By Gerardo Gomez: The Julio Cesar Chavez Jr vs. Saul Canelo Alvarez fight that boxing fans have been waiting for is couple hours away. The true boxing fans are using the hours before the fight to watch last minute videos of both camps and check out any necessary interviews to gather the information needed to come up with their analysis of the fight. I am no different.
Many of us “die hard” boxing fans know why this fight was made. It was made because Canelo once again avoided fighting GGG. Canelo’s team feels that fighting someone with the name recognition of Chavez Jr will generate the PPV buys needed to continue making him the “face of Boxing.” They feel that draining Chavez Jr, the fight will go in Canelo’s favor. Add that the history between both fighters and it becomes an easy fight to sell. It’s the fight that Mexican boxing fans have been waiting for years and its upon us. For Chavez Team, accepting the challenge comes better opportunities. Knowing that the odds are against them provides them with the task of adding greater determination to Chavez Jr and the opportunity to pull off the upset. Team Chavez understands that the fight was made from a business perspective and a way for Team Canelo to avoid GGG. Not only that but was also upset at the contract clause that included that if he is over the weight limit by a pound he would be penalized a million dollars per every pound that he is over the weight limit. That along with his animosity towards Canelo provided him with the determination that he needed to silence his critics. For that reason, he hired the hall of famer trainer, Nacho Beristain, to prepared him for the most important fight of his career.
Both fighters weighed at 164 yesterday which suprised Team Canelo given that they didn’t think Chavez Jr would make weight. The question that many have is did Chavez drained himself to make weight? Will this fight be a repeat of De La Hoya vs Pacman? How much weight will both fighters weigh on fight night?
For Canelo to win the fight, he has to use his boxing IQ and out jab Chavez Jr. Canelo needs to make Chavez Jr chase him so he can countered him. He needs to pound the body early and fight in the center of the ring. Canelo needs to avoid being on the ropes. He cannot afford to be caught in the ropes with a much bigger Chavez who can also land body shots of his own. If Canelo doesn’t get tired from the 10th round and on and is controlling the pace of the fight, I see Chavez Jr getting frustrated with himself and not paying attention to his corner and having that behavior play into Canelo’s corner. I don’t see Canelo dropping Chavez. I can seee Canelo outboxing him. Canelo can secure a victory tonight by outjabbing him and landing more body shots than Chavez Jr.
For Chavez Jr. to win the fight, it will be important at what weight does he enter the ring to fight. If Chavez enters the fight weighing less than 180, Canelo is in trouble. If Chavez enters weighing more than 180, that is a huge advantage for Canelo. Chavez needs to start strong and pressure Canelo in the early rounds but in a very intelligent way. He needs to pace himself for the 12th rounds. I can also see Chavez studying Canelo for the first 4-5 rounds and then picking up the pace around the 9th round and on. It is very important that Chavez Jr sticks to the plan that Nacho Beristain has set him up for it. If he gets distracted from that plan, it will be a very long night for him and will favor Canelo. Chavez Jr, needs to get inside of Canelo and pound Canelo with body shots. Chavez Jr needs to be care with Canelo’s left hook and his lelft body shots. If Chavez can force Canelo to fight the majority of the fight in the ropes and pounds the body and uses some uppercuts, Canelo will be impacted with those body shots as the fight goes onto the championship rounds. Overall, Chavez needs to use his size and reach to his advantage and take every advantage that he can.
This fight has Trilogy written all over it for couple reasons. A Canelo win will be very hard to generate a rematch as his ego will make him feel that there is no reason to fight Chavez Jr again and will go on and fight another fight not named GGG in September. A Chavez Jr victory forces a rematch and therefore most likely in September which provides both teams to make more money especially for Team Canelo. And if Canelo were to come victorious in September the 3rd fight would be a year from now which most likely would mean that if Canelo were to win that would secure a Canelo vs GGG fight for September 2018.
I predict Canelo starting strong the 1st 5 rounds but in between those 5 rounds some of body shots landed by Chavez Jr would provide him difficulty for the championship rounds. Chavez Jr may strategically start the 1st 5-6 rounds by not being the most active fighter of the two to preserve his energy for the later rounds. We may see Nacho instructing Chavez Jr to pick up his pace around the 7th round and on and instructing him to attack the body and put a lot of pressure on Canelo. I wont’ be surpised if Canelo gets drop on this fight. I won’t say Chavez will knock out Canelo but I can see Chavez Jr knocking Canelo down. If Chavez is able to take 2 out of 3 rounds in the championship rounds especially rounds 11 and 12th, I can see Chavez coming out with a Split Decision victory.