By Harry Rowland: On paper this is the best fight in the Middleweight division, unless you consider Saul Alvarez a Middleweight and not a super Welterweight or Super Middleweight, which are the divisions he fought in last, and will be fighting in his upcoming contest, respectively.
Jacobs 32-1 (29) is a career Middleweight, has vast experience having turned professional almost a decade ago, is also in his prime at 30, and he has had a good recent win over Peter Quillin, for the WBA regular Middleweight title which has afforded him this mandatory challenge to the unified champion.
You have to look back as far as 2010 to find Jacob’s last and only loss, a fifth round stoppage to Dmitry Pirog for the then vacant WBO Middleweight belt. Jacobs was winning the fight at the time the huge right hand floored him onto his back, but Pirog did look the more comfortable in the fight despite being slightly behind. It’s hard to gauge this loss as it was so long ago, and Pirog, a fellow unbeaten prospect coming through at the time, has since been sidetracked with injuries, but one assumes he was going on to do big things in the sport, which would have strengthened Jacobs’ case here.
Jacobs has not only strung together 12 wins since losing to Pirog, but more surprisingly has also won a bout against a crippling cancer that had him in a wheelchair at one point. He has had two impressive stoppage wins over the crafty and hard to pin down Sergio Mora in his last 3 fights, and sports a whopping 88% knockout ratio.
There aren’t many fighters that have been mixing at world class level for as long as Jacobs has with that kind of knockout ratio, but Golovkin 36-0 (33) happens to be one of them. The current best Middleweight on the planet bar none, is on a record 23 fight KO streak, he has the highest knockout ratio of any Middleweight champion in history, and has barely lost a round since turning pro in 2006.
Golovkin has been criticized for not having an elite name on his resume, but he really has fought everybody available to him, and has bested some very capable fighters in Grzegorz Proksa, Matthew Macklin, Daniel Geale, Martin Murray, David Lemieux and Kell Brook. He should not have to move up a weight division to gain access to a defining fight, if he is comfortable at Middleweight. Carlos Monzon and Marvin Hagler didn’t do it so why should he.
Another criticism of Golovkin is his leaky defence, which he protests is due to wanting to put on a ‘drama show’ allowing his opponent a few free hits, only when he knows he is in control. This does explain his shootout with the smaller and lighter hitting brook, and his water tight defence when he was up against a puncher of equal stature in Lemieux.
It remains to be seen if Jacobs can shed some light on this quandary. I don’t believe a fighter with a suspect defence could get as far as Golovkin has without at least being wobbled. I do think that if the day comes that he is beaten, it will likely be by knockout, in a long drawn out war, where in a show of machismo he really won’t believe he is about to lose until it happens.
Golovkin’s timing is so good that his power is perceived as superior to any of his opponents. He doesn’t have incredible speed but his footwork is so educated that he can get into a position to plant them, and really get the momentum of his huge swings going. Whether it be head or body the combinations come in hard and fast with every shot hurting when it lands. Nobody has been able to live with him over the 12 round championship distance.
Jacobs is going to have to gain control early by taking the center of the ring, letting Golovkin feel his power shots each time he comes forward, but also knowing when to take a step back or to the side. If he backs off like he did against Pirog, chances are it will end in the same way. If he can hold his ground and match Golovkin’s output, he can win rounds. Jacobs has the skill and punch power to stand up to anybody.
Golovkin needs to hunt down his prey and get his combinations going on the front foot. He will need to proceed on the side of caution, especially in the early rounds but I think he knows this. He is not merely a big puncher that has managed to get himself out of trouble here and there, he has absolutely dominated all opposition using brain as well as Brawn.
I believe this is the toughest test of Golovkin’s career so far, and Jacobs will give his all but in a losing effort. It is too soon to be going against Golovkin purely based on his nearing 35 years of age. The unstoppable force that is GGG breaks his man down, ending things around the tenth round.
Roman Gonzalez vs Wisaksil Wangek
Gonzalez 46-0 (38) is three fights away from equaling Rocky Marciano and Floyd Mayweather’s records as unbeaten champions. One senses he will be only two away after this contest, His last fight, a thrilling all out war with WBC Super Flyweight champion Carlos Cuadras, looked to be the closest he has come to defeat, having stepped up to world honors in a fourth weight division. But he still won convincingly enough, taking on probably the best in his new division.
Wankek 41-4-1 (38) doesn’t seem to be on the same level, having boxed most of his career in his native Thailand against mostly second rate opposition. He has an interesting record, losing his first two fights by stoppage, and more tellingly most recently losing to Cuadras himself on a technical points decision over 8, where he was simply being out-boxed. Most oddly he has fought debutants in his last two fights.
Wanek is a solid fighter, but Gonzalez is on another level, he will be too busy, elusive and strong for his man. He will come straight at him with a relentless pressure unleashed with precision and skill. Waneks best chance would be to go hell for leather and hope for a knockout early on, as he has proven power in his 83% stoppage ratio, and doesn’t have the ability to outbox his man.
Gonzalez is such a fighter that any other match up in the Super Flyweight division other than WBO champion Naoya Inoue, will be disappointing for the fans, much like the Golovkin Canelo conundrum. He will have too much for his man in this one, and now having had more time to grow into the division, will likely stop him around the 7th.