By Dan Ambrose: Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs) will defeat Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) by knockout on May 6, says former WBC super flyweight champion Carlos Cuadras. He’s picking the 6’0” Chavez Jr. to win based on his size and power. Cuadras points out that Chavez Jr. has a powerful liver punch that he likes to throw to hurt his opponents. Cuadras thinks that Chavez Jr. will land that shot on Canelo. It would be a real shocker if Chavez Jr. is able to KO Canelo, because he’s the No.1 pay-per-view fighter in the U.S right now.
If Chavez Jr. can bring Canelo down, it could hurt his future earnings, and it might have an effect of his promoters at Golden Boy keeping him away from Gennady Golovkin. The Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. fight will be televised on HBO pay-per-view, and a lot of boxing fans are expected to purchase the fight. It would be bad for Canelo if Chavez Jr. does send him skittering down to defeat by a knockout, because obviously he was picked out by Golden Boy because they believe he’s a safe choice.
The one thing that Cuadras has some concerns about when it comes to Chavez Jr. is whether the weight loss will impact his performance against Canelo. Chavez Jr. has to drain down to the 164 ½ pound catch-weight for the fight. That’s not going to be easy for him because he’s had problems just making the 168 pound limit. Whether that’s a sign that Chavez Jr. hasn’t trained hard enough in the last 4 years or a sign that he’s too big for the 168 pound division is unclear. If it’s simply a case of Chavez Jr. having taken it easy in his training for his fights since 2013, then he should be able to make the 164.5 lb. catch-weight without it hurting him.
“I’m going with Chavez,” said Cuadras to Fighthub.com in picking Chavez Jr. to beat Canelo. “I think he wins. Chavez is taller, bigger. I hope the weight cut doesn’t affect him. I think if he’s prepared well, he can win the fight. I think by a knockout, because a decision goes to Canelo due to his style and speed. I think he has a better hook. Chavez throws a hook to the liver. That could be the punch because he knows it’s a strong one. But Canelo could end up protecting himself more because of that. I’m picking Chavez,” said Cuadras.
Canelo was hit a lot in his last fight against Liam Smith. Canelo was able to win the fight by a 9th round knockout, but it wasn’t a superb effort from the red-haired Golden Boy star. 5 years ago, Chavez Jr. would have wiped out a fighter like Liam Smith. That would have been an easy fight for him. However, it’s been that many years since Chavez Jr. has been fighting on a regular basis. Whether his trainer Nacho Beristain can whip him into shape with the help of strength trainer Memo Heredia is the big question.
Cuadras might be right about Chavez Jr. needing a knockout for him to beat Canelo. Cuadras thinks that Chavez Jr. needs a knockout because of Canelo’s speed and style, but perhaps a more accurate reason is because of his popularity. It’s not easy to beat popular fighters like Canelo.
We’ve already seen Canelo involved in a number of controversial decisions since 2013 in his fights against Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara. The fighter that Canelo is replacing as the top money maker in boxing, Floyd Mayweather Jr, was also involved in a number of questionable decisions that went his way during his career. If Chavez Jr. is going to beat Canelo, he probably will need to knock him out. Two fighters are on opposite side of their careers. Canelo is going upwards still with his career, while Chavez Jr. has been going downhill ever since he lost to Sergio Martinez in 2012.
Cuadras (35-1-1, 27 KOs) will be fighting on March 18 on the undercard of the Golovkin vs. Daniel Jacobs fight card on HBO PPV at Madison Square Garden in New York. Cuadras will be fighting David Carmona (20-3-5, 8 KOs).