By Dan Ambrose: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. will bring in close to 1 million pay-per-view buys on HBO, predicts trainer Robert Garcia for their May 6 fight on Cinco de Mayo at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Garcia sees the interest in the Canelo-Chavez Jr. fight being high enough in the boxing world for the fight to bring in huge numbers on pay-per-view.
It’s really debatable whether Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. can attract more than a segment of the U.S boxing fans to want to see the fight. Like Gennady Golovkin’s recent fight with Daniel Jacobs on HBO PPV, it’s a fight drew interest from a small segment of the fans. We’re probably talking about hardcore fans, because Golovkin wasn’t facing a popular fighter or one that is even well-known. Jacobs hadn’t done much with his career since losing to Dmiry Pirog in 2010 other than beating the aging 36-year-old Sergio “Latin Snake” Mora twice and picking up a paper title.
“When you see Canelo doing close to a million against Chavez, because I think they are, maybe close to a million, maybe a million,” said Garcia to Fighthub.com. I think Canelo-Chavez will do really good,” said Robert Garcia to Fighthype.com. “What did Jacobs do? 1.7 for being a pay-per-view fight against Triple G, I think that’s a little bit low,” said Garcia.
I’d be surprised if Canelo-Chavez Jr. brings in 1 million buys. I don’t think it will. Chavez Jr. has been out of the boxing loop for too long, and the smart fight fans realize that he was picked for a reason by Golden Boy. Chavez Jr. was selected because he’s a name from the past that the fans from 5 years ago will remember. The newer fans won’t know who Chavez Jr. is because he’s not done anything with his career ever since losing to Sergio Martinez in 2012. That’s a long, long time ago for someone to be invisible to the sport.
There are a lot of newer fans of the sport that will have never heard of Chavez Jr. The knowledgeable fans will remember how little Chavez Jr. trained for the Sergio Martinez fight, and how he was out-boxed easily for the first 11 rounds. Martinez would have won a shutout decision if he hadn’t chosen to slug with Chavez Jr. in round 12. Chavez Jr. caught Martinez with a big right hand that hurt him, and he was dropped. Martinez made it out of the fight, but he injured his right knee and was never the same after that.
The pay-per-view numbers for the Golovkin vs. Jaobs fight haven’t been officially released as of yet, but Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports News said that he was told by Golovkin’s promoter Tom Loeffler that the Golovkin-Jacobs fight pulled in 170,000 buys. There are all kinds of speculation around the boxing world about numbers being less than that. We’re not going to know until HBO releases the final numbers.
I don’t think it really matters though if the fight did 130K or 170K, Canelo’s at Golden Boy are expected to use the low Golovkin-Jacobs PPV numbers as leverage to get their fighter a better deal if possible. The deal will need to get made very soon because Golovkin and Loeffler have just 10 days to make a decision on whether to fight WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders. If Golden Boy gives Golovkin a poor deal where he’s expected to agree to a very low split of the revenue based on his fight Jacobs, then it’s quite possibly he’ll walk away and fight Saunders next.
“I thought Golovkin won the fight,” said Roach to Fighthub.com about Golovkin’s recent fight with Daniel Jacobs. “I think the knockdown made the difference. It was a very close fight, but I thought he was the winner for sure. Canelo’s a good puncher, he’s a banger. If he could box as well as Triple G’s last opponent did, it would be great. He got exposed by more of a boxer. Canelo is not a boxer. He’s a puncher. He’s a banger, and I think Triple G is a little bit too strong for him. But I do look forward to that fight, and that’s something we do want to see. I do pick Triple G to win that fight. But it’ll be very close,” said Roach.
Canelo might be made to order for Golovkin due to his tendency to slug with his opposition. Canelo can box a little bit, but he doesn’t move well enough to do the things that we saw from Jacobs in his fight with Golovkin on March 18. What you see with Canelo is him taking the center of the ring, and then moving to the ropes to box with his back against the ropes. That style is going to leave Canelo at the mercy of Golovkin.
“The thing is he has to beat Chavez Jr. first. We can’t forget about him,” said Roach. “If Chavez Jr. trains for the fight, it makes it more competitive and a very good fight. Hopefully, it ends up the fight of the year like it possibly could be. There’s a lot of pride involved; the best fighters from Mexico, this winner of this fight for sure. They both have a lot on the line. But I think overall, Canelo is the bigger puncher and that might make the difference in the fight. He only showed up 5 days for his last fight,” said Roach about Chavez Jr. rarely training.
If Chavez Jr. can pressure Canelo and get him backed up against the ropes for long periods of time, he could hurt him with body shots. A human can only take so many body shots without getting worn down. If Chavez Jr. hits Canelo with a liver shot, he could take him out. Canelo will definitely need rest breaks against the ropes, because he always does. He’s not really made for fast pace 12 rounds.
The Chavez Jr. that beat Andy Lee and John Duddy would be a problem for Canelo. Chavez Jr. was huge looking in both fights, and he wore those guys down with big punches. Chavez Jr. showed mobility in the Duddy fight that few boxing fans had ever seen from him before. His conditioning was perfect in that fight. Chavez Jr. didn’t look nearly as good in his subsequent fights as far as conditioning does.