By Chris Williams: Trainer Freddie Roach is making his customary knockout prediction for Manny Pacquiao in his title challenge against WBO welterweight champion Jessie Vargas on November 5. Roach has been making knockout predictions for Pacquiao for the last seven years, and he’s comes up dry each time in needing to go the distance.
If there was a perfect time for Pacquiao to finally get a knockout, it would be right now, because he’s facing a guy that suddenly sees himself as a knockout puncher despite the fact that he’s not a puncher.
Vargas is inexperienced to the extreme. His best fights have come against Tim Bradley, Sadam Ali, Antonio DeMarco, Khabik Allakhverdiev, Aaron Martinez, Josesito Lopez, and Antonio Novikov. Of those fights, Vargas was soundly beaten by Bradley and arguably beaten by Lopez, Allakhverdiev, and Novikov. Vargas should have an additional three losses on his resume. Vargas is the World Boxing Organization champion now only because he fought Sadam Ali instead of one of the talented welterweights like Errol Spence.
“He is a two-time world champion and we have to respect that. He is aggressive, and he likes to come forward. I hope he attacks us,” Freddie Roach said to Fight News. “I think Manny will knock this guy out,” said Roach.
Of course, Vargas is going to attack Pacquiao. He won’t fight in an all-out brawling manner, but rather than a one punch at a time type of style in which he loads up with right hands from the outside. Vargas will put everything he has into each right hand he throws, because he fancies himself as a puncher now. Vargas telegraphs his shots, and his offense has become very predictable.
Pacquiao can either way for Vargas to load up on a right hand in order to counter him, or he can simply jump on him from the opening round and force him into a fight for survival. It’ll be a lot harder for Vargas to be able find power if he’s trapped into a dog fight for 12 rounds. That’s not a style that he’s accustomed to. He’ll need rest breaks. If Pacquiao doesn’t let him rest, then I see this fight going badly for Vargas with him getting battered.
It might not matter that Vargas isn’t a big puncher. He could still KO Pacquiao if he uses hi tall 5’10” frame to load up on a right hand while Pacquiao is coming forward. If Vargas times Pacquiao, he could get him out of there with a right hand.
Pacquiao has the knockout power, speed and aggressive attacking style to fulfill Roach’s prediction of a knockout of Vargas, but he’s going to need to go after him in a concerted manner for him to get the KO. In the last seven years, Pacquiao has frequently become a fighter who only attacks in brief spurts rather than continuous the way he did earlier in his career.
Pacquiao attacks an opponent and the backs off for a while before going after them again. He doesn’t have the punching power to score knockouts in that manner. The only way Pacquiao can score knockouts is if he attacks nonstop the way he did against the weight drained and old Oscar De La Hoya in 2008. If Pacquiao fights like that against Vargas, he might be able to knock him out.
I have my doubts that Pacquiao has the engine or the mentality to fight like that at this point in his career. Fighters like middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin can fight like that, but not Pacquiao any longer. That’s why Golovkin is so exciting and gaining so many new fans with every fight. He’s willing to put it on the line and risk getting hurt in each fight. Pacquiao doesn’t seem willing or capable of being that type of fighter.
That might explain why Pacquiao’s pay-per-view totals have been dropping off since 2012. Other than that one fight against Floyd Maywether Jr. in 2015, we’ve seen Pacquiao’s buy rate dropping. It hasn’t helped that Pacquiao’s promoter Bob Arum has matched him against these guys: Brandon Rios, Chris Algieri, and Tim Bradley. The Vargas fight will likely be even fewer buys than those guys, because it’s not a great match-up.
“It’s very important for me to win convincingly to prove I still belong here,” Pacquiao said to fightnews.com. “My plan for this fight is to make the fans happy.”
If Pacquiao really wants to make the boxing fans happy, then he’s got to jump on Vargas from the get go, and not let up on him for an instant in this fight. That’s how Pacquiao can make the fans happy. I’d be very surprised if Pacquiao fights the way he used to earlier in his career, because it takes too much energy, and it’s risky. He’ll likely jump in and out all night long in attacking Vargas with spurts.
It’ll likely be identical to how Pacquiao fought Bradley in his last fight. There’s nothing wrong with that kind of fighting style. However, it won’t produce a knockout, because he won’t go after the much taller Vargas in a way needed for him to get the KO.