By Dan Ambrose: Trainer Floyd Mayweather Sr. sees IBF/WBA/WBO light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev getting a beating on Saturday night by Andre Ward in their fight on HBO PPV. Floyd Sr. expects Ward to pick Kovalev apart. When Floyd Sr. was reminded that Kovalev has already beaten a fighter very much like Ward in Bernard Hopkins in 2014, Floyd Sr. said they were not the same type of fighters. He went on to say that Ward will give Kovalev a beating.
Ward hasn’t given anyone a beating recently except for super middleweight Paul Smith, who Ward stopped in the 9th round last year. Smith was overweight and fighting outside of the 168lb division, where he’d been a fringe contender for a number of years. Ward has not given anyone beatings behind the hapless Smith and a weight-drained Chad Dawson four years ago in 2012. That was a different Dawson and a different Ward. That was a younger Ward going up against a less than stellar version of Dawson.
(Photo credit: Tom Hogan – Hoganphotos/Roc Nation Sports)
Mayweather Sr. said this to Fighthype.com about his views on Kovalev-Ward:
“Them two are completely different kind of fighters,” said Mayweather Sr. about Hopkins and Ward. “Ward’s going to beat the hell out of him. Don’t worry about that. Your boy is going to take care of business. I think Ward can pick him apart. Ward is much too good a fighter for somebody like Kovalev. You’ll see. Ward is going to get a chance to do it,” said Mayweather.
Mayweather Sr. may have to change his tune after Saturday night if Kovalev dominates Ward the way he did Bernard Hopkins. I wonder what Mayweather Sr. was saying about the Kovalev vs. Hopkins fight ahead of time. Was he predicting that Hopkins would do the job easily against Kovlaev too? It doesn’t matter. What does matter is that Mayweather Sr. could be proven wrong on Saturday night with Kovalev dominating Ward and possibly stopping him inside the distance. It’ll be interesting to see if Mayweather Sr. gives Kovalev credit if he wins the fight or if he says something like Ward having an off night.
I don’t think it would be a case of Ward having an off night. I just think he never had the power in the first place to be a top level light heavyweight, and he certainly doesn’t have a high enough work rate to get the better of the top fighters. The weak opponents that Ward has fought since moving up to the light heavyweight division are guys that the top contenders would have an easy time destroying. If you threw Paul Smith, Alexander Brand and Sullivan Barrera inside the ring with the likes of Artur Beterbiev and Oleksandr Gvozdyk, I believe they would not only lose to them, but lose to them by knockouts.
I don’t think Ward is going to be able to give Kovalev a beating. We haven’t seen that from Ward in his last two fights. He won two dull 12 round decisions in his last two fights against 39-year-old Alexander Brand and Sullivan Barrera. Those were not thrilling affairs. Ward appeared to be fighting at the highest level he could, but he still couldn’t do much in terms of battering Brand and Barrera. Unless Ward can find some youth to go back to 2011, he might end up losing to Kovalev tomorrow night.
Even Ward at his very best would have problems with Kovalev. Ward used to like to lower his head and charge forward to land shots. If he does that against Kovalev, he’s going to get hit with straight hands and left hooks. That type of fighting might work against Ward and put him in a position to get knocked out. Ward needs to fight smart. He can’t afford to fight like he used to when he was fighting earlier in his career.
Kovalev would destroy that sloppy, head-first version of Ward. Lowering one’s head and charging forward won’t work against a fighter like Kovalev, because he likes to throw straight right hands and left hooks. Ward might get away with charging forward once or twice against Kovalev, but as soon as he figures out what he’s doing, he’s going to time him and nail him coming in. I don’t think Ward could survive a knockdown from Kovalev.
“I was convinced Andre Ward on points, but I have a sneaky feeling Kovalev after the weigh-in,” said British promoter Eddie Hearn to Fighthype.com. “Kovalev has got to be desperate. He can’t let Ward control him. Froch said when he [Ward] was here; he was so deceptively strong on the inside. Kovalev mustn’t let him do that. I don’t think Ward will be able to lock him down like he did Froch,” said Hearn.
I get the feeling too that Kovalev won’t let Ward smother his offense the way that Ward did in his toughest fight of his career against Carl Froch. Ward was able to nullify Froch’s offense by coming in side and staying on Froch’s chest during the crucial rounds of that contest.
The lanky 6’2” Froch didn’t have the upper body strength to pry Ward off of him in order to get his shots off. Most of Froch’s power was in his arms. He needed more than arm strength to pro Ward off of his body. The referee working the fight didn’t penalize Ward for his wrestling, so Froch was out there on his own in having to try and get clear. Kovalev is a lot stronger than Froch, and I think he’s going to have no problems taking Ward apart if he tries to grapple with him.