Keith Thurman vs. Errol Spence Jr. who wins?

By Boxing News - 07/05/2016 - Comments

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By Jaime Ortega: The boxing fans expect the welterweight division to soon blow up with spectacular fights. A few welterweights are well tested, and others need more time. A few boxing fans accuse Keith ‘One Time’ Thurman of ducking Errol ‘The Truth’ Spence Jr. The common perception of the casual fan is that Keith avoids Spence because he knows he would lose via brutal body knockout in the late rounds.

Errol Spence Jr. has actively called out Thurman since late last year. As a result of openly calling out Thurman, Errol fans have started to express publically in forums and comments that Thurman is a coward and a duck.

For Errol fans, the fight with Shawn Porter exposed Thurman’s weakness as a boxer, doubting his power level and boxing ability – it wasn’t enough.

A lot of people use the word expose in pugilism for the wrong reason. When Luis Collazo (underrated boxer) landed a heavy body shot on Thurman, his critics right away shouted “Collazo exposed Thurman” who outlasted the hard shot, only to make Collazo quit shortly after. Every boxer, no matter the pedigree has been hit or rocked by a boxer at one point of their career. I am yet to find a legendary boxer who never got hit with a haymaker. Henry Armstrong aka Homicide Hank, ranked top 3 boxer in history, received serious blows from his opponents only to come up successful in almost every fight. Those who say “Thurman got exposed”, either don’t know boxing is a punchers sport, or simply never boxed!

I’ve never witnessed any boxer in the welterweight division knockout Shawn. Shawn has a legit chin, he got caught in the head with serious blows from Thurman and survived – can’t say other boxers would have survived those shots. Not many boxers that I know, could take vicious punches to the face and survive. Julio Cesar Chavez’s, secret recipe was his chin; he got hit hard and survived devastating blows, thanks to his granite jaw. Shawn might not have Chavez’s chin, but has a good chin. Thurman’s bombs took a toll on Shawn’s head, who looked dizzy and confused at times akin his fight with Kell Brook who jab-sniped Shawn’s face with great accuracy.

If Errol fought Shawn tomorrow, it wouldn’t be a picnic for the Texan. I highly doubt Errol would knockout Shawn. Errol has never fought a boxer with Shawn’s intensity. Shawn is even more athletic and a better boxer than Marcos Maidana, who shares a similar style; unlike Maidana, Shawn knows how to move his head when he attacks. I wouldn’t bet against Shawn if he fought Spence because Spence has fought no names yet.

Errol as I mentioned in one of my previous articles, has fought boxers who have no knockout power, can’t counter-punch, look slow, and simply look like average Joes. Not only that, but Errol has only fought boxers who fight stylistically like brawlers, so his boxing diet is limited to beating average brawlers. Thurman’s shows a more sketched resume.

Would he really beat and knockout Keith Thurman? Sorry, I am a skeptic. Errol is no defensive genius, he opens his face for counters every time he throws his vicious body punches. One thing I learned after his boxing exhibition in the 2012 Olympics against Sapiyev Serik, was that he struggles to block boxers with fast hands. In his fight with Andrey Zamkovoy, Errol also showed that he really struggles with boxers who fight backwards, have a decent defense, Jab and counter punch; the Russian slowed the American who went for vicious body shots, by using the jab and clinching. Unlike Floyd Mayweather’s Olympic robbery, Errol convincingly lost against Sapiyeh and Andrey; in fact, Andrey schooled the American who at times wildly smothered his punches without accuracy akin Maidana.

If Errol fights Thurman, he has six problems to deal with. Thurman’s explosiveness. Thurman’s explosive rushes come on unpredictable paces of the fight. Second, Errol is going to have to deal with Thurman’s speed; Thurman might not be Floyd or Manny Pacquiao, but he is pretty fast. Third, Thurman’s defense is underrated, he showed it against Shawn— let’s remember that Floyd himself struggled with Maidana’s onslaughts and rugged style; Shawn is not only more athletic than Maidana, but a better boxer.

Fourth, Keith is not a stable target, he likes to move around the ring and has showed versatility; Keith has the quality to mutate depending on his opponents style. Fifth, Keith has the power to hurt any welterweight, and has destroyed and even ended the career of veteran boxers like Julio Diaz. Six, Keith’s best weapon is his uppercut, he is highly dangerous and accurate with it; he has never lost the uppercut war, the closest boxer to end it was Diego Chaves who knows how to box – and got knocked out with a vicious and well placed body shot.

One popular critique against Thurman, is that he is soft in the breadbasket and that is how Errol will terminate him, via body punishment. This assumption is laughable. Thurman’s breadbasket might not be well defined like the body of Timothy Bradley or Chris Algeri, but that is because his body type is genetically tusk. Remember Jake La Motta or Rocky Marciano. Jake’s breadbasket was not that impressive at first sight, but he never got knocked down against the vicious body punches in the body that Sugar Ray Robinson landed. In fact, Jake knocked Sugar Ray down and despite losing to the best pound for pound in history on almost all his fights, Ray couldn’t knock him down or out. Keith’s body type is not as impressively cut as some of the boxers he has fought, but he is not soft in the breadbasket. He trains very hard, and his body type just doesn’t look as ripped as other boxers, that’s all.

Errol’s expertise is without a doubt his body shots, but he opens his face for counters and has not corrected that flaw. If he exchanges with Thurman, Thurman is going to murk his head with vicious punches. Thurman loves to move around and counter, and Errol likes to corner his opponents and be the aggressor. Thurman will not respect, Errol’s power, he will use the jab and his uppercuts to slow down the Texan. Errol’s accuracy is better than his speed, which could pose few difficulties against an explosive and unpredictable boxer. The question is how tested is Errol’s chin? If he has a strong chin, the chances of Errol to hurt Thurman will go up. However, looking at both boxers, Thurman has the edge and will knockout Errol with one of his explosive blasts if he doesn’t correct his bad habits. Remember that Ben Getty, Keith’s original trainer worked with Sugar Ray Leonard. Leonard was renowned for his explosive burst.

Errol might have a better match up against Danny Garcia (maybe), Jessie Vargas, Sammy Vazquez, Frankie Gomez…but he will have a hard time with Keith, Shawn and Kell Brook. Against Kell Brook, Errol will surely pay his defensive mistakes. Errol is tailor made for the English IBF champion. If Errol fights with Brook, the way he fought against Chris Algeri, he will get knocked out; Brook will punish the Texan with 1-2’s all day and expose his defensive flaws akin observed in the 2012 Olympics — Errol will lose.

Errol fans are making him look invincible. For many, he is the next boxing legend on the making. He indeed looks great against average boxers with no power. Yet if he does not correct his defense, and stops to open up while releasing those slow vicious body punches, he will end up knocked out by an elite welterweight. Keith will eat him alive, if he exposes his head that much. It would be a knockout in favor of the Floridian who won’t have any problems in getting chased, and counter the Texan with hurtful blows. Keith would win, betting against him is not wise. I haven’t been sold on Errol, I think Felix Verdejo might be guy to watch if he eventually moves to the welterweight division. Younger and has lots of potential – future prospect for top rank.