Canelo vs. Smith: Can Liam beat Saul?

By Boxing News - 07/06/2016 - Comments

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By Dan Ambrose: WBO junior middleweight champion Liam Smith (23-0-1, 13 KOs) has a real opportunity to make a name for himself on September 17 in his fight against Saul Canelo Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KOs) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. Many boxing fans from all over the world will be tuning in to see the fight.

They won’t be tuning in because of the little known 27-year-old Smith. They’ll be watching so that they can see Canelo. He’s now the de facto new Floyd Mayweather Jr. of the sport as far as popularity and pay-per-view buys. However, Canelo is a very flawed star and not someone that can be trusted on to beat the best fighters at 154 and 160 the way that Mayweather could be counted on to beat the top welterweights during his long 20-year pro career.

Smith’s promoter Frank Warren believes he’s capable of beating Canelo. He has a ton of faith that Smith can and will get the job done against the 25-year-old Canelo. The fight is in the U.S though, and it might require a knockout for Smith to win. Canelo has gotten lucky in several of his fights during his career in dodging losses. He fought poor enough to lose against Jorge Juarez, Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara.

“What he has going for him is his self-belief, the fact that he is natural at the weight and he has a far stronger chin than Amir and is nowhere near as reckless,” said Warren. “He is not going up two weights as Amir did, but I think he is one of the best young fighters around and is not in the least fazed about stepping into the ring with the great Canelo.”

Canelo isn’t great. He’s far from being a great fighter. You can say that Canelo is a decent slugger, who does well against guys that are lighter than himself. Many of the fights Canelo had had during his career were against opposition that he had a weight advantage over. I see Canelo as a younger version of Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., a fighter who excelled for a while at middleweight when he was able to drain down to that weight from light heavyweight and cruiserweight.

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When Chavez Jr. had to finally move up in weight to super middleweight, he’s not been the same. He doesn’t do well against guys his own size. I suspect that Canelo’s success will end when he’s forced to do the same at some point. The only way that Canelo will be able to succeed once he can no longer drain down to 155 or 154 is if he targets a weak fighter to bet. I can’t see him ever beating Golovkin or someone like Daniel Jacobs.

“I actually think he has the tools to do the job. He is a cannier fighter than Khan and, indeed, other super welterweights. He has stealth and style, along with a mean streak – and he can bang,” said Warren. “Unlike Amir, he is not nearing the end of his career. I think Canelo will have his hands full and will discover that Smith’s style has often been likened to that of a Mexican.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-DEH6gQwqM