By Scott Gilfoid: Former WBO 147lb champion Chris Van Heerden is picking undefeated #2 IBF Errol Spence Jr. (20-0, 17 KOs) to hand IBF welterweight champion Kell “Special K” Brook (36-0, 25 KOs) his first loss of his career when/if that fight takes place in the near future. Spence is one fight away from becoming Brook’s #1 IBF mandatory challenger, and once that happens, the fight will occur no later than 2017.
The only way it doesn’t take place is if Brook vacates his IBF welterweight title or gets beaten before then by someone like WBO champion Jessie Vargas. If that happens, then the burden of having to fight Spence will be shifted to Vargas and he’ll need to make the decision whether to face the young talent or vacate the IBF strap to escape the fight.
“I’m picking Errol Spence. He is the future,” said Van Heerden to Fighthype.com.
Spence, 26, stopped Van Heerden in the 8th round last year in September 2015 in a one-sided contest. Van Heerden, 28, tried his best early on, but Spence wore him down with his heavy shots to the head and body. In the 7th round, Spence dropped Van Heerden twice. In the 8th, Spence pounded Van Heerden against the ropes until referee Alan Huggins was forced to step in and halt the contest was just too powerful for Van Heerden to cope with.
Brook just finished wiping out his IBF mandatory challenger Kevin Bizier by a 2nd round knockout last March. Brook now has two optional title defenses that he can take before he needs to decide whether to face Spence or vacate the title to dodge the fight.
In what has to be seen as a BIG hint that Brook will duck the Spence fight, his promoter Eddie Hearn has been talking about Brook moving up to 154 to campaign at junior middleweight after two more fights. What a coincidence. Brook would need to defend his IBF title against Spence in two more fights. By moving up to 154, Brook won’t have to face Spence and a potential embarrassing knockout loss.
Spence still needs to earn the IBF mandatory spot by beating #3 IBF Konstantin Ponomarev (30-0, 13 KOs) first. However, that fight is seen by many as a repeat of Spence’s recent 5th round knockout win over Chris Algieri last April. Ponomarev is like a younger version of Algieri, with same flaws and built in limitations that Algieri has in his game.
Top Rank would be better off having Ponomarev step aside so that he can avoid a potentially punishing loss to Spence. A better target for Ponomarev would be for him to go after the WBC belt held by Danny Garcia. That’s a fight that would be a winnable one for Ponomarev. Going after the IBF belt is just a bad idea all around. Heck, even if the IBF let Ponomarev leap frog over Spence to make him the IBF mandatory, I still can’t see Ponomarev beating Brook. He’s too weak in the power department to pull off the upset.