By Scott Gilfoid: It’s almost the moment of truth for the 27-year-old George Groves (21-2, 16 KOs), as he’s only one day away from fighting for a world title for the third time in his career when he faces WBC super middleweight champion Badou Jack (19-1-1, 12 KOs) on Saturday night on Showtime pay-per-view from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Groves is already a two-time loser when it comes to fighting for world titles. Groves lost 2 out of his last 4 fights with a record of 2-2 over that stretch of time. While Andre Berto is being given a ton of criticism for possessing a 3-3 record in his last 6 fights, Groves has slid under the radar and escaped similar criticism from the boxing fans.
The reason for that is obviously because of less interest in the Jack vs. Groves fight. Fewer people have put a spotlight on the fight to analyze the two fighters, and point out the obvious about Groves being put into a fight that he’s done precious little to earn.
“I’m confident of winning. I’m always confident of winning,” Groves said. “The best way to describe this fight is that Badou Jack is a good fighter, but I’m a better fighter. I’m better than him at every phase of the game.”
Groves is obviously not better in the areas that count in comparison to Jack. Groves does not have a better chin than Jack, and that’s very, very important. Further, Groves does not have better stamina than Jack, and that’s even more important. For whatever reason, Groves is basically a 6-round fighter. He gasses out at the 6 round point each time he fights, and he’s always vulnerable to getting beaten once he reaches that point in his fights.
My theory on why Groves gets tired at the midpoint of his fights is because he’s fighting in the wrong division. If you look at how big Groves is after he rehydrates for his fights, it seems pretty obvious that he’s a light heavyweight in size. As such, when you drain down a ton of water weight to fight in a division that’s not suited to your body, you’re going to be sluggish, tired and weak after the first 4-6 rounds of the contest.
That’s just your body telling you that you shifted too much weight around in a short span of time in losing weight through dehydration and then quickly putting it back on in 24 hours before the fight. It doesn’t matter if Groves put the weight back on the night before the fight. He’s still going to be feeling the negative effects of putting that weight back on within 24 hours.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Groves weighs 190 pounds on Saturday night when he gets inside the ring with Jack. That’s a 22 pound gain from the 168 weigh-in limit. With that kind of weight, Groves will only be able to fight hard for six rounds at best. After that point, he’s going to gas out worse than Anthony Dirrell did under Badou’s pressure and completely fall apart in the 2nd half of the fight.
“We’re very prepared. We know what we need to know about Jack. We wish him luck, because he’s going to need it,” Groves said. “It’s a huge fight for me with the title on the line. I’ve been involved with higher competition but I haven’t taken my eye off of Badou Jack. We’re looking forward to a good win on Saturday.”
Groves makes a big deal about how he’s fought Carl Froch and James DeGale in the past, but these are the only two top fighters he’s ever fought before and he arguably lost all three fights. Groves was knocked out twice by Froch, and he was given a controversial decision over DeGale in 2011. I had Groves losing that fight when he gassed out after six rounds. DeGale was royally robbed in that fight. As such, Groves’ past experience against “higher competition” has been a negative one. Yeah, he’s fought higher competition, but he’s lost each time. What good is having experience when you got the worst of it each time?
If anyone needs luck in this fight it’s Groves. He’s going to gas out quickly like an old battery, and he’s fighting on foreign soil in Jack’s home city. Groves is going to need a lot of luck because if he doesn’t get to Jack in the first six rounds, then I see Jack giving a tired Groves a bad beating in the 2nd half of the fight and sending him home to the UK as the loser.
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