by Michael Montero – This Saturday night it’s the return of “PBC on ESPN”, as Los Angeles based featherweights Leo Santa Cruz and Abner Mares square off inside Staples Center in downtown LA. On paper this is a fight of the year candidate and by far the best matchup in the young history of Al Haymon’s “Premiere Boxing Champions. But where should fight fans place their bets?

Both Mares (29-1-1, 15KO) and Santa Cruz (30-0-1, 17KO) were born in Mexico but raised in the LA area. Brought up in a boxing family, Santa Cruz had an amateur record of 148-7 and at age 15 won the world amateur championship. Mares was born in Guadalajara, relocated to California with his family at age 7, then returned to Mexico to live with his father at 15, where he established an amateur record of 112-8 and went on to represent his native land in the 2004 Olympic games. As professionals both men have 31 fights on their ledgers, but Mares is far more accomplished. The Montebello, California resident has faced the likes of Vic Darchinyan, Joseph Agbeko (twice), Anselmo Moreno and Daniel Ponce de Leon, among others. Santa Cruz, of nearby Rosemead, California, has a fairly weak pro resume to date, his best opponent being a badly faded Cristian Mijares last year. In addition, Mares has fought over 50 more professional rounds than his opponent has, and has won world titles in three divisions. For all of these reasons, many experts favor Abner Mares on August 29th, but there is more to the story.

Mares was making the first defense of his WBC featherweight title in August 2013, when he was stopped by hard punching Jhonny Gonzalez in the first round of their bout inside the StubHub Center. He has spent the last two years rebuilding his confidence but is yet to face an elite level opponent. Santa Cruz brings a 3” height and reach advantage into the ring Saturday night, plus the confidence of having never faced defeat as a pro. Those factors even things up a bit.

But the biggest factor in this matchup that many boxing analysts and fans alike seem to be overlooking is the fact that neither man punches very hard. This bout will come down to work rate and stamina, and the trademark throughout the career of Leo Santa Cruz has been punch volume. Expect Mares to start off fast Saturday night in attempts to establish himself as the “boss” in the ring. Yet into the middle rounds the work rate of Santa Cruz will begin to take effect, and the undefeated fighter will retain his “0” with a hard fought decision victory. If things go according to script, a large crowd inside Staples Center will provide a great atmosphere that will bleed through the TV set of those watching at home on ESPN. This is just what the doctor ordered for the struggling PBC.

So there you have it fight fans, this boxing scribe favors Santa Cruz by decision in a competitive and exciting fight Saturday night. Questions, comments, hate mail – you know what to do.

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