Cotto vs. Canelo: The best fight in boxing

By Bob Smith - 06/09/2015 - Comments

canelo44By Bob Smith: Due to the two recent victories of Miguel Cotto and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, they will face each other in the fall. I dismiss as speculation reports that Cotto will fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. for Cotto’s WBC middleweight title, for many reasons, but the most basic one is that there has already been an agreement for Canelo and Cotto to fight.

For me, this is the best fight because it has two peak performers at the top of their weight class who are very competitive with each other and also elite in their own right. I think that both of their weight classes are somewhere between 154 and 160 pounds, and perhaps they could fight for the “155.8 pound championship belt.” But joking aside, Canelo usually fights at a catch weight above 154 and Cotto has insisted on a catch weight below 160. Canelo is a big junior middleweight, Cotto is a small middleweight, and so forth.

Contrary to many opinions on this site, including my own, Cotto is a legitimate middleweight champion and performed very well against Daniel Geale, who is or at least was a top ten middleweight. It is tough not to argue that Geale is fading at this point in his career, and while perhaps his defeat at the hands of Golovkin removed some confidence, still the victory of Cotto was impressive, especially against a bigger fighter with a longer reach, who entered the fight about 175 pounds, and who has contested and won middleweight titles in the past.

For me, what was most impressive about the victory of Cotto was how his power has followed him up the weight classes. Additionally, his boxing skill and world championship experience is far more significant than Canelo. So, with this as a segway, we can discuss significant issues in the fight that will help to shape its outcome.

Championship Experience

This category is a significant one and obviously strongly favors Cotto. Cotto has been in the ring with DeMarcus Corley, Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Antonio Margarito, Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, and Sergio Martinez, among others. While it is true that these were at different weight classes, he has also been exposed to far different, better, and more unusual styles than has Canelo. Also, Cotto had an extensive if not very accomplished amateur career. By contrast, Canelo has fought only a few real world class level fights – against Mayweather, Trout and Lara. He was completely schooled by Mayweather, and arguably should have either lost or received a draw against one or both of Lara and Trout – both of his fights with these boxers were very even. And all of these fights are within the past two years.

The counter argument would be that Cotto also has lost when he faced A-level competition – on the other hand, everyone loses to Mayweather; Margarto possibly cheated; he fought Pacquiao at a catch weight. Really, his only legitimate loss is against Austin Trout, and to this day his loss is perplexing for Cotto fans. So, the similarity is that one from one point of view both are B+ fighters who through propaganda and media exposure and facing weak competition and through a strong fan base are considered A level fighters.

A B+ level fighter is still a very good fighter, but A level is reserved for those who dominate their generation, fight and defeat the best, and do this over time, like Mayweather or Pacquaio or Roy Jones Jr. in recent times. In my view, Gennady Golovkin, who would beat either of them in a fight at 160 cannot be considered an A level fighter until he beats one or both of them, and perhaps beats Ward, Chavez, and or Froch as well. But I bring all of this up because what is exciting about the match up is not that they are the “best” except perhaps in the mythical 155.8 pound division, but rather because they are very good fighters who are very evenly matched.

In sum, in championship experience, the advantage goes to Cotto.

Power

Both Cotto and Canelo have good power, and in particular Cotto has an excellent left hook that has been resurrected in his recent fights. But it is difficult to not go with Canelo on the issue of raw power alone – not only because of his recent fight with James Kirkland, but because Cotto appears to have more power than he actually does due to his boxing skill and experience. So, in power there is a slight advantage to Canelo, though to be fair each can and will hurt the other when they fight.

Boxing skill, movement, and footwork

Canelo does throw highly effective combinations with both precision and power. On the other hand, he does not move well and is often flat footed, particularly when loading up on big shots or when he attempts to walk an opponent down. At the same time, he has been incorporating head movement into his arsenal, and he has become effective on the inside and defensively in addition to his precision combinations. However, he does have difficulty controlling distance, is not very effective as a ring general and against an aggressive or superior opponent, can be somewhat passive in the ring. His power hides a lot of his weaknesses, and his basic aggressive orientation obscures his weakness as a counter puncher and his inability to fight off of his back foot.

Cotto by contrast is the better ring general, has far better footwork and is a more effective boxer-puncher. He appears to have more power than he does due to his successful timing and counter punching abilities. He can bang on the inside, but also effectively control distance. His age, his greater experience as a ring general, and his capacity to control distance will be key factors in his fight. As a result, Cotto, has the advantage in boxing skill and related factors as well.

Defense

Though neither Cotto nor Canelo are expert defenders, and though Canelo has improved markedly recently, Canelo does tend to gas out and take minutes off during rounds quite frequently. This habit will be very dangerous against Cotto. However, if and when Cotto does attack when Canelo is resting, we could see the emergence of Canelo as a successful counter puncher, and one who can hurt Cotto quite quickly. Because of the superior power, and perhaps speed also of Canelo, Cotto would be ill-advised to charge in and try to fight on the inside. So, though neither men are expert defenders, at this point this category is a wash and it is reasonable to think that they about even.

Summary and Prediction

No outcome in this fight would surprise me – it is just that even, and on any one night, anything can happen. Having said that, Cotto does have more championship experience, and superior boxing skill, footwork and movement. The key question is whether or not Canelo will be able to land significant punches or counter punches against Cotto early enough in the fight to stop his momentum, or even hurt or stop him. I argue that Cotto is too skilled a boxer to fall into this trap, and that as he wins rounds and Canelo tires, he will not be foolish enough to charge inside and try to fight Canelo on his terms on the ropes. For this reason, namely the ring generalship and capacity to control distance of Cotto, in combination with his sustained body attack, will prove to be too much for Canelo and Cotto will win a difficult but clear unanimous victory. While I could be wrong, this to me seems the most likely outcome at present.



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