Provodnikov vs. Matthysse: 12 round war or stoppage?

By B.G.B - 04/16/2015 - Comments

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By B.G.B: 2015 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting years for boxing since the turn of the millennium. Floyd Mayweather Jr. – Manny Pacquiao will steal all the headlines but do we really know what to expect? It may be an action packed slug fest that will live in the memory of fight fans for generations. It may be a game of chess where one wrong move ends it all. Or (let’s hope not!) it could be a 12 round snooze fest.

The simple answer is we don’t know but thankfully we will find out and we can’t wait. Danny Garcia – Lamont Peterson may not have been as spectacular as we’d hoped but it was still a fight the fans were hoping to see. Saul “Canelo” – James Kirkland is not Canelo vs. Miguel Cotto or Canelo vs. Gennady Golovkin, but it’s a fight that will likely be fan friendly.

According to Dan Rafael, Cotto-Canelo is a done deal for September assuming Cotto successfully defends his 160 world title against Daniel Geale on June 6th and Alvarez beats Kirkland on May 9th. From the lower weights right up to heavyweight big fights are brewing, but Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs) vs. Lucas Matthysse (36-3, 34 KOs) in their fight this Saturday, April 18th at the Turning Stone Resort & Casino, in Verona, New York, USA, may just be the pick of them all.

Two of the most exciting warriors in boxing will go toe to toe this Saturday night in a fight that cannot be missed. With all the politics and legal battles that exist in today’s boxing it’s a rare moment where boxing purists can sit back and watch two heavy handed KO artists tear each other apart. Old fashioned maybe, but I doubt there is a single fan that would disagree. The hype and excitement that surrounded Danny Garcia-Matthysse truly gripped fight fans almost as much as the card’s main event between Mayweather and Canelo. Had the card not had such an enthralling co-event it may not have been the second highest grossing boxing PPV of all time. The fight was a competitive, interesting fight but it was not quite the battle that was promoted. Provodnikov Matthysse is a completely different animal.

If styles make fights then my god we have a fight right here. This fight could be alongside Diego Corrales-Jose Luis Castillo, Erik Morales vs. Marco Antonio Barrera, Pacquiao vs. Juan Manuel Marquez and of course Arturo Gatti – Mickey Ward. Diego Corrales vs. Jose Luis Castillo ended in a stunning late stoppage. Morales-Barrera went a grueling 36 rounds in one of the most famous trilogies in history. Pacquiao and Marquez have endured 41 rounds that have thrown up just about everything boxing has to offer. Arturo Gatti vs. Mickey Ward laid into each other for 36 rounds in a trilogy that abandoned defense. How two men could trade so much leather still confuses me today. So what can we expect this Saturday? Based on styles Provodnikov-Matthysse will struggle to reach the 10th. Based on the sheer will, heart and chins of the pair we could be in for a memorable 12 rounder. But on the flip side, the power of the two suggest another conclusion; an early knockout. But which are we likely to see?

Power may be the obvious factor surrounding this fight but stamina and conditioning will be just as crucial. From the first bell the two will land flush and the powers of recovery will be vital. Both have huge hearts and more than impressive chins but with so many hard shots landing the one who does not recover will crumble. When fighting such an aggressive, strong and powerful opponent defense more than plays its part but neither Ruslan nor Lucas are regarded as defense minded boxers. They are come forward power punchers that exhaust opponents. If both can withstand early onslaughts and share even toe to toe exchanges then the natural instinct of both men will surpass the desire to defend. They will continue to trade and, perhaps more important, continue to believe. That belief may just take them to the finish line.

The will and chin of both fighters will be pushed to the limit. Whether that limit can make it to the final bell is yet to be seen and with so much power in the mix it may be the complete opposite. One punch can finish a fight and that one punch may just come in the very first round. This is why perfect conditioning is absolutely necessary. One backward step and both men will jump on the opportunity instinctively. When one smells blood they will go for the kill and it may well come down to which fighter has the superior conditioning. A tired fighter is a weak fighter and in a fight that is based on brute strength and power any weakness will be capitalized on with devastating effect.

As much as I’d like to see an even tear-up that lasts a full 12 rounds I can’t see it happening. I lean towards Matthysse by early stoppage that may replicate the historic ‘war’ between Marvin Hagler and Tommy Hearns. Provodnikov abandons defense too regularly in order to get close but with a puncher as powerful as Matthysse that tactic is a dangerous one to say the least. Provodnikov will come out firing and put pressure on Matthysse and likely have significant success of his own but whether he capitalizes on that success is another question. We saw against Timothy Bradley, who has an iron chin himself, that Provodnikov can hurt any fighter but he was not able to finish the job and went on to lose the bout as he did with the light hitting Chris Algieri. There’s no doubting Provodnikov’s relentlessness will be enough to hurt Matthysse, but that relentlessness comes at a cost of defence. Matthysse edges the power department and any edge counts. One flush shot and Provodnikov will be taken to a place he has not been to and his instincts will not be to defend. Once he’s open Matthysse, as he so often does, will finish a weakened opponent.

No trash talk is needed, no bad blood is evident and both fighters are expecting a war. This is a fight for the fans and a fight that I strongly believe can lead to something special.

Leave your predictions.

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