Will Algieri upset Manny Pacquaio?

By Bob Smith - 11/15/2014 - Comments

algieri4By Bob Smith: It is unquestionably the case that Manny Pacquaio has declined as a boxer over the last few years, partly due to the aging process, partly due to his wars with Marquez and Bradley, as well as the cumulative effect of all his difficult fights. However, he is not yet to the point where Floyd Mayweather actively seeks to fight him, and this more than anything should tell the reader about his chances of being upset by Algieri.

First, off who is Chris Algieri? He is a very talented athlete, who started training in martial arts at the age of 10, and received a black belt at age 15. He is a former undefeated professional kick boxer, who was a welterweight world champion before deciding to retire and to move on to boxing. As if this were not enough, he was also a nationally ranked wrestler in high school, and has a bachelor’s and master’s degree in nutrition.

Clearly then, he is a well-rounded and versatile and gifted athlete, and also a complete one. He is also intelligent, fit, and has nearly 20 years of experience with some form of martial or fighting art, or combat training. Nevertheless, his professional boxing record, though solid at 20-0, is nowhere near that of the legendary Manny Pacquaio, who needs no introduction.

He does have some advantages over Manny Pacquaio – height and reach are the obvious one, as well as youth, and the lack of damaging losses or the experience of serious wars. He also is the more versatile athlete, and is obviously a better expert in nutrition. So, despite Manny Pacquaio being the odds on favorite to win, he does have the potential to cause Pacquaio some problems. He has good foot movement, partly due to his kick boxing career, he moves well, and has respectable speed, combinations, and ability to vary his punches.

The problem, however, is that he lacks punching power. He has only 8 knockouts in 20 fights, even despite facing weak competition as a boxer on a learning curve. He is able to slow the advance of an aggressive fighter, but his punches lack the capacity to hurt a boxer with a solid chin, and it is not unrealistic that Pacquaio will walk through his punches.

The other disadvantage that he faces is that he cannot really handle Pacquio’s speed, angles, and punching power. Pacquiao is a world class fighter that can be called “great”, whereas Provodnikov, as tough and hard hitting as he is, is more of an aggressive brawler and can only be called “good” even though he is a world champion. There is a chasm between a “great” fighter and a “good” fighter and at this point in his career, and perhaps ever, Algieri lacks the talent, background, experience, power, and skill to defeat a “great” fighter.

Algieri looked very good in the Provodnikov fight because of his movement, combinations, and his sheer drive to withstand the relentless attacks of Provodnikov despite his two first round knockdowns and grotesquely swollen eye. But he did have the edge in speed, movement, and boxing skill compared to Provodnikov, and that is what enabled him to survive. He will not have the edge in either speed or skill against Pacquaio and while he was able to resist the punches of Provodnikov because despite the power, he saw them coming, the same cannot be said for the punches of Pacquaio, which even now are very fast, and come from unusual angles, and carry enormous power, so much so that even Mayweather hesitates to fight him even as he is 35 and on the decline.

So, an outcome of a Pacquaio unanimous decision would not surprise me, as well as a knockout for Pacquaio in any given round. It could even happen in the first round, or maybe Algieri will give Pacquaio problems, due to his reach and movement, and maybe it will happen in the 11th. But Algieri, a relatively inexperienced fighter who has rarely fought outside of New York, will be completely out of his element fighting against a fighter of Pacquaio’s caliber in Macao. This fighter is tailor made to make Pacquiao look good, and a decent boxer is the sacrificial lamb in this process.

However, I write not only as a fan and a boxing analyst, but also an adviser. My prediction of the Hopkins vs Kovalev fight was a mixed one, and while I was correct to say that the fight would go the distance, and that the skill of Hopkins would defeat the power of Kovalev, I was wrong to think it would be a competitive fight and that Hopkins would have a chance at winning, much less actually win, or win by KO, which by the way had 100 to 1 odds. At the same time, none of my clients or those who followed the advice in my article lost money, for I did recommend putting 25% of the betting money on a Kovalev UD at 4 to 1 odds.

What then is my suggestion for the Pacquaio-Algieri fight? The first one is to avoid betting on this, for the odds are not great, and it is tough to predict if Pacquaio will win by KO/TKO or by UD. However, if the reader does intend to bet on the fight, and it is with money that he can afford to lose, the best speculation would be which round Pacquaio does knockout Algieri, for the payoff ranges from between 11 to 1 and 22 to 1. For tips on this complicated process, I do offer a boxing prediction service at bobsmithkoboxing@gmail.com, and the reader can receive expert predictions on major upcoming fights for only twenty five dollars a month and a twenty five dollar initiation fee. For example, a $200 bet at 16 to 1 odds would turn into $3200, a very generous payoff for only a small $25 monthly fee.

So, determining the method of victory for Pacquaio will be difficult, along with the specific round of a KO/TKO if in fact he wins in this way, so I don’t recommend betting on this fight, but if the reader decides to do so, really the only way to go is with the expert advice of Bob Smith at the service I listed above. I make it a priority that my clients never lose money, but if the client does care to make a speculation, I can provide critical in-depth insights as to the specific round of the KO/TKO.



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