By Ken Woods: The light heavyweight unification bout between Bernard Hopkins (55-6-2, 32 KOs) and Sergey Kovalev (25-0-1, 23 KOs) on November 8 is being billed as a highly competitive contest between two of the division’s best. However, the actual contest will be anything but.
Hopkins will absolutely embarrass Kovalev on his way to a unanimous decision victory, making history once again by unifying titles. Kovalev is portrayed as a big bad wolf in the division with dangerous punching power and a seek and destroy mentality. This is mostly hype.
Kovalev does indeed have great power in both hands, but beyond that he is very limited and greatly inexperienced compared to his foe. He has never even been past the eighth round of fight. How is he going to respond when Hopkins takes him into deep waters? He has very restricted footwork, slow hands, and lacks the cageyness to compete with Hopkins for 12 rounds. How is he going to respond when Hopkins continues to turn him, counterpunch off the ropes, and use his footwork to position himself for the proper defensive and offensive angles? Simple answer: he won’t know how to respond.
He will fold psychologically, and once that happens, the fight is won. Not only does he possess inadequate physical abilities (besides his power), he also has never been on this stage before. His lights have never been close to this bright, and the pressure and magnitude of the bout may cause a different performance than we are used to.
In Kovalev’s last fight, a lapse in concentration led to him getting knocked down. He recovered and went on to stop that fighter. Nonetheless, Hopkins was sitting ringside for that bout. If Hopkins’ mere presence caused that type of lapse, imagine what being in the ring with him will feel like. Furthermore, Kovalev signed the bout agreement to face Hopkins a day before his last fight. He was feeling that pressure in the ring, even if only for second. In boxing, all it takes is a second for a fight to change dramatically.
In addition, Kovalev also has never faced an opponent near the level of Hopkins in terms of skill and experience. His best adversary couldn’t pick Hopkins’ ring shorts. Hopkins is not dumb. He would not have taken this fight if he wasn’t sure he could win. Remember, before Hopkins was a professional boxer, he was a hustler on the streets of Philadelphia. He knows an easy mark when he sees one.
Hopkins will set traps, counter, tie him up, smother his punches on the inside, shoot counter right hands from the outside and control the pace of the bout late in the fight. If Hopkins brings his A-game, this contest may resemble his clash with Kelly Pavlik.
The best game plan Kovalev has is to go to the body early with his power, feint later to the body to open up head shots and try to cut the ring off. He may even get a knockdown at some point early in the fight. He may respond with greater acuity at this stage and make Hopkins’ age (49 years old) show more than ever. If that does happen, it will be very surprising, but anything can happen in boxing.
With the ring I.Q. Hopkins displays on Saturday night, Kovalev may actually think he is fighting an alien in a parallel universe instead of a ring.
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