By Dan Ambrose: Mexican star Juan Manuel Marquez thinks that former WBA/WBC junior middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (43-1-1, 31 KOs) has the power and the speed to score a knockout in his requested catch-weight fight of 155 pounds against Erislandy Lara (19-1-2, 12 KO’s) next Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Marquez still sees Lara presenting a lot of problems for Canelo with his boxing ability, but he thinks that if Canelo uses his intelligence, he’ll be able to knock the taller, faster Lara out in this fight.
“It’s a tough, tough fight for Mexico in the style of Lara, but the Mexican fighter [Canelo] comes with speed, closes the outputs to Lara and connect your hard blows as he often does, this fight the can end by knockout,” said ‘Dinamita’ Marquez ESPN via Vanguardia.
Canelo isn’t that fast, so it’s hard to agree with Marquez here. Canelo has some hand speed, but that’s not going to be his main advantage against Lara. The thing that Canelo will have going for him in this fight is his power, and possibly a weight advantage. You can also make an argument that Canelo might get the benefit of the doubt with the judges with them giving him the edge in a decision if the fight goes to the cards.
Lara isn’t nearly as popular as Canelo, and it might prove difficult for him to win a decision unless he gives Canelo a real schooling in this fight the same way Floyd Mayweather did against Canelo last September. Even in that fight, you still had one judge [CJ Ross] scoring it as a draw.
“It’s very important, but must always be aware of the kickback of Lara,” Marquez said. “[The] Cuban fighter hits hard and accurate, so he [Canelo] needs to attack with a certain amount of caution and be aware that a response will always come. Canelo’ must make a smart fight,” Marquez said.
If Canelo comes plodding forward like he did against Alfredo Angulo, he’s going to get a lot in this fight. Canelo will need to come up with a better plan than the one he used against Angulo, because that’s not going to work for him in this fight. Golden Boy Promotions did Canelo no favors by putting him in with a soft opponent like Angulo after his loss to Mayweather, because it didn’t help Canelo get ready for what’s to come against Lara. Instead of matching Canelo with the very slow Angulo, Golden Boy needed to put him in with a fighter with some speed and mobility such as Jermell Charlo. That would have been a far better fight for Canelo than dragging out Angulo, who was coming off of a terrible beating at the hands of Lara from last year.
Canelo has not looked good in his only two fights against quality opposition during his career against Floyd Mayweather Jr and Austin Trout. The rest of Canelo’s opposition has been nothing to get excited about. The only two fighters that stand out on his entire resume are Trout and Mayweather, and Canelo didn’t put in an overwhelming performance against either of those guys. Mayweather beat him, and Trout fought him well enough to deserve a draw last year.
Canelo’s problems in those fights was his flat-footed fighting style, his poor stamina, and his ability to step it into 3rd gear with his offense. He always seemed to be pacing himself in those fights, and this enabled Trout and Mayweather to do well. Canelo rebounded from those poor performances to beat a very, very slow and unusually weak Alfredo Angulo in his last fight in March, but that fight failed to answer questions about whether Canelo has the talent to beat the very best in the junior middleweight division. The fight also brought up the question of whether Canelo should be fighting in the middleweight division instead of at 154.
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