By Dan Ambrose: Former WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (48-1-1, 32 KO’s) is being given very little chance of beating WBA 160lb champion Gennady Golovkin (29-0, 26 KO’s) by knowledgeable boxing fans for his upcoming July 19th HBO pay per view clash against the Kazakhstan fighter. However, Chavez Jr. thinks he’s going to beat Golovkin, and that’s obviously the only reason why he agreed to take the fight against him.
Chavez Jr. will have an advantage in weight, possibly as much as 20-25 pounds by the time he rehydrates after the weigh-in. The fight will take place at 168lbs with no catch-weight. Golovkin will be moving up in weight from 168, so making weight won’t be a problem for him. Chavez Jr’s promoter Bob Arum of Top Rank agreed to a $1 million weight penalty that only come into play if either fighter fails to make the 168lb weigh-in limit.
“Golovkin has done great things in the last two years, and has had enough knockouts. He is a fighter who has gone well,” Chavez Jr. said via mediotempo. “I think it is the best fight for me. It’s the fight that motivates me is a tough fight and I am very confident I’ll win.”
In looking at how Chavez Jr. had to struggle twice to defeat Brian Vera recently, I think Chavez Jr. has almost no chance at all in beating Golovkin. Vera should have gotten a win over Chavez Jr. last year in September in losing a very controversial 10 round decision. In the rematch, Chavez Jr. clearly beat the smaller Vera by a 12 round decision earlier this month, but Chavez Jr. still took an awful lot of punishment to the head.
Golovkin will do major damage to Chavez Jr. is he’s allowed to hit him as much with head shots as Vera did, and there’s no way that Chavez Jr. will be able to take that kind of punishment without getting busted up and eventually halted. Even if he remains standing, it’s likely that the referee will waive it off at some point due to the beating that Chavez Jr. is taking in the ring.
Chavez Jr. no doubt will likely enjoy a 20 pound weight advantage over Golovkin in this fight, but the weight won’t mean much. The judges won’t matter either for this fight, because Golovkin will bring his own judges in the form of his two fists. He’ll force the judges to become spectators on July 19th.
Chavez Jr’s corner may end up throwing in the towel in this fight because the punishment that he’s going to take against Golovkin will be much more severe than the sustained beating he took against the much older Sergio Martinez in 2012. Golovkin will stay in the pocket and sit down on his punches a lot more than Martinez did. Golovkin won’t wear himself out with endless movement the way that Martinez did, and will focus instead on turning Chavez Jr into an over-sized punching bag.
You’ve got to give Chavez Jr credit for being able to take a lot of head shots, but there’s a point where any human can’t go beyond and I believe we’re going to see Chavez Jr reach that threshold against Golovkin. If his corner doesn’t throw in the towel, then I hope Arum steps in from the audience to save Chavez Jr. by tossing a towel of his own to save his money fighter for more clashes against guys like Vera.
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