My Two Cents: Alvarado vs. Provodnikov

By Jay McIntyre - 10/18/2013 - Comments

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By Jay McIntyre: This Saturday, October 19th will bear witness to a fight between Mike Alvarado (34-1, 23 KO’s) and Ruslan Provodnikov (22-2, 15 KO’s),  and make no mistake, it has the potential to become fight of the year. A boxing match in its simplest form is two men trapped in an enclosed space, trading leather with one another until the weaker one breaks.

At its intellectual peak, a boxing match is a savvy display of mental chess where two minds jockey for a position of dominance. The truth that awaits us this Saturday night lies somewhere in between.

While it may be argued that Alvarado is the more apt boxer, there can be no mistake that both men have lion-sized hearts in the ring. The difference, as is nearly always the case, will come down to who has the better game plan. Timothy Bradley (31-0-1, 12 KO’s) sought to out slug the unwavering Provodnikov and barely escaped with his life – never mind a questionable decision. Mike Alvarado, in his first encounter with Brandon Rios (31-1-1, 23 KO’s), attempted the same and was not so fortunate. He rebounded with a tactical win in their rematch and these results are telling. It is also worth mentioning that Ruslan is coming back down from his last fight at welterweight (147 lbs.) to fight at light welterweight (140 lbs.). Given the way that Ruslan brutalized an opponent in a higher weight class, Mike Alvarado will want to be mindful of the perils of fighting in the trenches with a man whose style of fighting is based on pure attrition.

So, here’s what each man ought to do…

Mike Alvarado will need to stay on the outside and keep Ruslan on the end of his straight punches. He was susceptible to Rios’ overhands in both of their fights, so he will need to exercise caution when throwing his jab – Provodnikov times his cross counter well to set up his work inside. The jab will be crucial, but must be used with discretion to avoid the aforementioned cross. Feints and lateral movement (particularly to the right) will keep Ruslan from lining up his looping shots. If Alvarado stays in one place for too long he will be giving Ruslan what he wants. He doesn’t need to prove himself in the pocket, he has done this before and no one will doubt him.

Ruslan Provodnikov will need to do what he does best: walk down his opponent, time his shots with counters to get inside and then bludgeon his enemy. He does marvelous work hooking to the body and the head when standing in the pocket. He also has a menacing cross counter when he times it. Ruslan’s best chances lay not in trading straight punches, but in timing Alvarado’s straight punches so that he can connect and get inside and get to work. If he can poke holes in the gas tank of Alvarado he will eventually find that still target that he loves to pummel. To avoid the jab, which he has struggled with in the past, he will need to use proper head movement.

Provodnikov has the habit of exposing the heart of his opponent – their will to survive is perpetually tested over the 10 or 12 rounds. Alvarado has the capacity to box more skillfully, his heart is never questioned. The difference, as I said before will be the game plan, and how long they can keep their game plan afloat over the 12 round fight.

What the data tells me is that Mike Alvarado will win via decision.

That’s my two cents – you can take it straight to the bank, or leave it on the ground.



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