(Photo credit: Esther Lin) By Craig Hilton: Well, what a fight in prospect: Floyd Mayweather Junior is taking on probably the biggest challenge of his career to date in fighting Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez on 14/09/2013 at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas Nevada. For me, it’s a fascinating blend of skill and ability.
Mayweather is still a very quick, slick counter-puncher with the swift reflexes necessary to escape from the most vicious attacks. Mayweather’s skills and experience showed once again in his recent unanimous victory over Robert Guerrero.
After the fight, many were left feeling that he simply cannot be beaten by any of the current crop of fighters surrounding the Welterweight Division. Some have dismissed ‘Canelo’ as a mere pretender to Floyd’s throne, believing that he is nothing more than a pot-shotter struggling to make weight at one hundred and fifty four pounds. They believe that he lacks the stamina, skills and experience required to pose any threat to Floyd’s supremacy. However, I believe Alvarez could make this a very close encounter, potentially stealing a split-decision victory.
Firstly, Saul Alvarez (43-1-0) is not an inexperienced fighter. Many of his recent victories over Shane Mosley, Kermit Cintron and Ryan Rhodes have come against these experienced fighters at the twilight of their careers. ‘Canelo’ must have learned a great deal from this list of fighters who have campaigned at world level. Another experienced fighter, Oscar De La Hoya, has held frequent discussions and sparred with Alvarez to help develop the skills and game plan required to beat Mayweather Junior.
It appears that Alvarez has been devising a strategy for Mayweather for some time and used the Mosley bout as an opportunity to hone some of his tools. Oscar – who many believe has posed the biggest threat to Floyd to date in losing by a split decision on 05/05/2007 – has become something of a mentor to ‘Canelo’, assisting him where he can in order to steer him to victory.
In my opinion, Alvarez displays some of the best skills in the sport when landing accurate shots with force; he looks like a more natural fighter than Floyd. Saul’s powerful jab will be highly significant when mounting combinations to penetrate Floyd’s defence. Alvarez’s jab proved to be an effective tool when snapping Mosley’s head back. In his recent bout with Austin Trout, a colossal right hand floored Trout. This appears to be a dangerous blow and Floyd’s Philly Shell can be vulnerable to that shot down the pipe. His Bolo punch could prove to be another influential weapon in reducing the effectiveness of Floyd’s shoulder roll.
I’m a massive fan of Alvarez’s inside game; he is accurate with his body shots and slips them around guards really well. He also defends well on the inside; blocking shots effectively by tucking up well with his long arms to leave few gaps for opponents to land. ‘Canelo’ will be stronger than Floyd on the night and I believe that he will not be bullied at close range. It is crucial that Alvarez mixes a head and body attack to reduce the effectiveness of Floyd’s Philly-Shell defence.
Alvarez’s head movement is also admirable; it is Tyson-like at times and great to watch. Against Trout, Alvarez was slipping speedy jabs and combinations before unleashing one of his own forceful assaults. It remains to be seen whether Alvarez will be able to avoid Floyd’s sniper right hand and rapid-fire left hook but I don’t believe that he will be as vulnerable to a blow as Guerrero by maintaining a tight guard. ‘Canelo’ will be more dynamic than either Guerrero or Cotto were when fighting Floyd; Cotto did not display the kind of head movement that Alvarez will show and both fighters were punished for being immobile.
Many criticise Saul’s fighting style when he seemingly takes minutes off during rounds before launching aggressive charges. However, Mayweather hardly fights the full three minutes of every round. A lot will depend on how the fight is scored as to who emerges victorious: will the judges score for the aggressive, eye-catching power blows of ‘Canelo’ or the counter-punching ability of Floyd Mayweather Junior?
I believe that ‘Canelo’ will need to fight with greater dynamism from varied levels and angles to have success in penetrating Floyd’s Philly Shell defence. Robert Guerrero – of similar height to Floyd – did not change his level of attack and body position enough when attacking Mayweather; consequently he was kept on the end of the lead right hand and tied up at close range. I believe ‘Canelo’ will have more success than Guerrero by manoeuvring Floyd into uncomfortable positions with dynamic and varied footwork whilst mounting his attacks from a crouched position. Longer-armed fighters like Floyd hate to punch down on their opponents and varied levels of attack would keep Mayweather from landing the right-hand lead as easily as he did against Guerrero.
Fighters tend to set their feet too much when fighting Floyd; they get inside Floyd’s jab at mid-range and punch themselves out by firing indiscriminately whilst Floyd rolls and deflects the punches with ease before tying up and enjoying some respite. When Alvarez gets inside in one of his powerful bursts, I would like to see him set his feet at different angles to ensure fast combinations are landed and then get out of range quickly to avoid being tied up.
I actually thought ‘Canelo’ did well in finding his range against Trout and he will need to repeat this success against Mayweather Junior. However, I agree with Floyd’s uncle, Jeff Mayweather; that he will need to move in and out of range with greater rapidity. ‘Canelo’ really needs to make Mayweather think that he’s in the middle of a storm when he mounts his attacks and rain colossal blows on him, particularly when Floyd is cornered and away from the centre of the ring.
I believe that ‘Canelo’ can cut off the ring and land some rib-crunching body shots and I hope that – as Oscar De La Hoya announced this week– he maintains his strength whilst being quicker at the catch weight of one hundred and fifty two pounds. If he does, Alvarez can topple Floyd from his throne and end his reign as boxing’s best.
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