(Photo: Stephanie Trapp/SHOWTIME) By Dan Ambrose: In a lot of ways the April 20th fight between WBC junior middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (41-0-1, 30 KO’s) and WBA champion Austin Trout (26-0, 14 KO’s) is a lot like the last September match-up between former WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and Sergio Martinez.
Canelo is the same type of flat-footed brawler that Chavez Jr. is, and he’s facing the same problems that he experienced in dealing with a mobile fighter with excellent hand speed and boxing skills.
As we know already, Chavez Jr. was unable to cut off the ring often enough to be competitive with Martinez. Each time Chavez Jr. would attempt to trap Martinez and force him into a brawl, Martinez would effortlessly glide laterally to foil Chavez Jr.
Martinez would get hit occasional by hooks as he was moving by Chavez Jr., but nothing like he would be if he had just stood in front of the huge 190 pounder and slugged with him.
Canelo is exactly the same kind of fighter as Chavez Jr, except he’s a little bit faster on his feet, but not much. Canelo will be attempting to cut off the ring and force Trout into a corner or up against the ropes to where he’ll have no escape plan. If you’ve seen Trout fight before you’ll realize that Canelo’s chance of success in trapping Trout will be minimal.
Trout is just too agile, too fast on his feet, too athletic and above all just too smart to be trapped by the 22-year-old Canelo. The age difference, the difference in athleticism and the difference in intelligence is just too much. Trout, 27, is way too smart for Canelo in the ring, and he’s not going to fight like the mostly poor opposition that Golden Boy Promotions has continually pumped into the ring for Canelo to beat.
You can’t blame Canelo for being a little cocky of his abilities because he’s got that pumped up record, but if you look at how he actually fights, and the incredibly mediocre opposition he’s built his record up with, you can only come to one conclusion about his chances against Trout on April 20th.
Canelo basically has a punchers’ chance of beating Trout, and no more than that. If Canelo doesn’t knock Trout out, he’s going to lose that fight and lose badly.
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