By Allan Fox: WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (45-0-1, 31 KO’s) has had a nice ride as the World Boxing Council title since capturing it against paper champion Sebastian Zbik last year in June. Chavez Jr. has defended the strap twice against less than dangerous opponents Peter Manfredo Jr. and Marco Antonio Rubio.

Those have been relatively easy fights that kept the WBC strap in Chavez Jr’s possession perhaps a lot longer than deserved. Had he fought guys like Sergio Martinez and Gennedy Golovkin, Chavez Jr’s ride likely would have ended with his first title defense. But things have been nice for him with the soft matchmaking.

Tomorrow night, things won’t be nice for Chavez Jr. in his third title defense against the highly skilled and powerful southpaw Andy Lee at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas. About the only good thing I can see that Chavez Jr. has going for him in this fight is that the fight will be held in Texas, meaning that Chavez Jr. will have an estimated crowd of 35,000 for the fight with the vast majority of the fans rooting for him.

Chavez Jr. will have a chance of winning the fight if he can make it to the final bell without being knocked down too many times. If the fight goes to decision, Chavez Jr. will have a very good chance of winning it simply because he’ll have the crowd in his favor. Texas has been good to Chavez Jr. and I can’t see him losing by a decision over there unless Lee gives him a real beating in this fight. Unfortunately for Chavez Jr. that exactly what I see happening in this fight. I see Lee dominating the fight, battering Chavez Jr., busting him up, and likely knocking him down two or three times before the mismatch is finally halted.

Chavez Jr. looked weak and weight drained at Friday’s weigh-in, and he never was much of a puncher to begin with. He’s not in the class of Lee in the power department nor the skill department. Chavez Jr. is an inside fighter without the power that inside fighters usually have. Those skills won’t help him against Lee, because he doesn’t fight on the inside and can’t be made to fight in close.