By Scott Gilfoid: ESPN writer Dan Rafael is giving former two time super middleweight champion Carl Froch a good chance of defeating IBF super middleweight champion Lucian Bute tomorrow night in Nottingham, England.

Rafael said “I think because of the fact that Bute is going to England and Froch is still a good fighter, maybe the 3rd best fighter in the division, behind [Andre] Ward and Bute, I think this is a fight he can win. I got to give a little tip to Bute – he’s an experienced guy, he hasn’t been beaten. But to me this fight could go either way.”

Ah, Rafael, I disagree with you big time about where Froch ranks in the super middleweight division. Try number #6, behind Ward, Andre Dirrell, Bute, Anthony Dirrell and Mikkel Kessler. I think Edwin Rodriguez might even be better than Froch.

I honestly don’t see this as a winnable fight for Froch and I think seeing it as a 50-50 fight is giving Froch way too much credit. I suggest that Rafael sit down with a nice cup of strong Colombian coffee and watch the Ward vs. Froch fight from last December. After Rafael watches the fight, then he should sit down and watch several of Bute’s recent fights. After he takes note of Bute’s superior skills, Rafael should then sit down and give another video analysis of the Froch-Bute fight. I think he’ll come up with something entirely difference once he’s done so.

Froch does have a chance in this fight, but only a desperate puncher’s chance. If he can wear down Bute, take him into the later rounds, he could in theory land something big to take him out. Librado Andrade had Bute out of it in the 12th four years ago, but the long count seemed to have saved Bute in that fight. But he’s gotten a lot better since then. I don’t think Froch has gotten better in the last three years. If anything, he looks worse, and it’s understandable because he’s had a lot of hard fights in the Super Six tournament.