By Chris Williams: Golden Boy Promotions CEO Richard Schaefer seems to have completely given up on the idea of Bob Arum allowing his big money fighter WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. in May, June or even in November of this year.

Schaefer hears Arum’s numerous why the fight can’t get made and sees Arum already looking to put Pacquiao in a four fighter tournament that will take up the entire year, and sees this as clear evidence that Arum doesn’t plan on letting Pacquiao anywhere near Mayweather.

Schaefer told RingTV writer Lem Sattersfield “The only time that Arum is going to put Pacquiao in with Floyd is when Pacquiao is at the end of his career. I think that’s going to be sometime in the second half of 2013. If Pacquiao keeps winning, that’s when I think that fight will happen.”

I disagree with Schaefer on his timeline for Pacquiao retiring, but I agree with the rest of it. Pacquiao seems to like fighting and making the money he’s getting for these mostly mismatches. He’s not going to retire next year with Arum putting him in against beatable fighters. I see Pacquiao hanging around until he starts getting beaten by the Top Rank stable guys that Arum is pitting him against.

When Pacquiao gets beaten by someone like Timothy Bradley, Lamont Peterson, Mike Jones, Miguel Cotto or Antonio Margarito, then he’ll look to get that cash out fight against Mayweather. The fight will make a fraction of what it could make now, but at least Pacquiao will be able to make good money in the other fights until he gets taken down by a young lion that will rip him to bits.

I already see the deterioration in Pacquiao’s game and it’s only matter of time before gets taken down at the back of the herd by one of the smaller lions. But if Arum sees Pacquiao struggle to beat whoever he faces next, you can bet that Arum will put Pacquiao in with weaker guys. I can see him going around the horn again for another fight against Margarito for a nice in house fight and maybe even Top Rank fighter Joshua Clottey one more time.

As far as fights in the welterweight division go, we could see Pacquiao fight guys like Kell Brook or maybe the WBA welterweight paper champion Vyachslav Senchenko. Believe me, Arum will start matching Pacquiao with progressively weaker opposition if he struggles to beat Timothy Bradley and wins another gift decision like the one he got in his last fight against Juan Manuel Marquez.

I do agree with Schaefer on Arum waiting until Pacquiao is at the very end of his career before putting him in with Mayweather. Arum will likely be so nice when that time comes and will probably bend over backwards just to get that last payday for his fighter. It’s going to happen just like Schaefer says it will, I hate to say.