(Cotto seen here looking beat up in Pacquiao fight from 2009)By Dan Ambrose: As Dan Rafael astutely pointed out in his column at ESPN earlier today, WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (54-3-2, 38 KO’s) will very likely be facing WBA junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (37-2, 30 KO’s) next in a rematch in May or June at a catchweight of 150lbs.

The reason why Cotto will get the fight over the other fighters – Lamont Peterson, Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez – is because Pacquiao’s promoter Bob Arum will likely be looking to keep Cotto happy after his contract with Top Rank out last month on December 31st. Cotto is still fighting for Arum in a fight by fight basis, meaning that Arum will likely be looking to keep Cotto as happy as possible to keep him from straying away.

Cotto is a proven pay per view star for Arum, so it’s in Bob’s best interest to keep Cotto as happy as a clam. It’s not even a really hard choice for Arum to pick Cotto, because he’s a bigger PPV draw than Bradley and Peterson by far. Neither of those fighters will draw the same kinds of numbers that Cotto will. Marquez, 38, would likely bring in about the same kinds of PPV numbers as Cotto if he gets a fourth fight with Pacquiao. However, Marquez is dangerous, will want more money next time and he’s already said he won’t fight Pacquiao in Las Vegas, which is where Arum will likely have Pacquiao fighting next. It sure won’t be in New York.

The bad thing about Cotto-Pacquiao is that it probably won’t be any more entertaining as the previous fight between Cotto and Pacquiao. That fight ended with Pacquiao stopping Cotto in the 12th, but the fight really stopped being interesting to watch after the 4th when Cotto started running just to survive. Pacquiao isn’t the same fighter he was back then, and doesn’t move nearly as well. However, Cotto isn’t the same fighter either and his new fighting style, which involves him moving a lot, won’t help him beat Pacquiao.

That’s the same recipe that Cotto used against Pacquiao from rounds five through eleven and it was totally ineffective for Cotto. All it will mean is that the fight will be boring to watch due to Cotto’s movement and he’ll still lose. He may last long enough to lose by a lopsided 12 round decision, but the result will still be a loss. If Cotto tries to fight Pacquiao, then he’ll get knocked out fairly quickly. Cotto can’t handle getting hit a lot without his face puffing up and his skin tearing around his eyes.

I personally hate the idea of seeing Pacquiao fight Cotto again. He’s already been there and done that, and it’s a waste of time to fight him one more time. The only time I can see where rematches are necessary are for close fights. The Cotto-Pacquiao fight wasn’t a close fight, it was a mismatch. Since Cotto has been matched softly since his loss to Pacquiao with wins over Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito, there’s no reason for me to see Cotto doing any better. He’s not been beaten since then but Cotto hasn’t fought anyone. Arum has made sure that Cotto has done well by putting him in with guys that were afflicted in some way either by age (Mayorga) or injury (Margarito and Foreman).

The Cotto-Pacquiao 2 fight will be held at a catchweight of 150lbs. Last time they fought, Cotto had to drain down to 145lbs for a catchweight that benefited Pacquiao. This time, the weight will give Cotto the slight advantage if you want to call it that. I don’t see it making a bit of difference whether Cotto gets a catchweight or not. He’s still out of his class and will get beat up. The only reason Cotto has been looking good lately is because Arum has put him in with shot or injured fighters. Pacquiao is clearly fading but he’s still got more than enough left to knock the spoon fed Cotto out.