By Allen Fox: WBC light heavyweight champion Bernard Hopkins (52-5-2, 32 KO’s) is favored to retain his title next month against two-time light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson (30-1, 17 KO’s) largely based on Hopkins’ recent success against Jean Pascal, the fighter that Dawson lost to last year.

However, Dawson, 29, has to be considered a real threat to win this fight based on his superior hand speed and slicks boxing skills. Hopkins hasn’t fought a fighter with the skill-set that Dawson possesses since Hopkins fought and lost to Jermain Taylor twice in 2005.

Dawson throws with as much speed as Taylor, but doesn’t sit down on his punches as much as he did back then and isn’t as offensively oriented. That’s not that Dawson can’t open if he wants to and dominate guys, it’s jut that he has a habit of going into hibernation mode at exactly the wrong times in fights. Dawson sometimes eases of for three rounds at a time and lets lesser fighters back into fights that he was dominating.

Dawson did this against Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson. But Dawson can’t afford to do this with Hopkins if he wants to win this fight. If you give Hopkins three rounds or more, he’ll do anything he can to capture enough to get the victory. And with Hopkins’ popularity with boxing fans, and his incredible ability to turn back time, he may have the judges leaning in his favor for any of the close rounds.

Dawson has to push hard the whole time not to let Hopkins get any confidence and steal rounds. Keeping space in between him and Hopkins would be a wise thing for Dawson to do in this fight, because Hopkins tends come lurching forward with his head down and fists ready to land in close. Dawson has got some amazing skills, but he’s not in the same class as Hopkins on the inside. He’s not someone that can win in that kind of manner.

That’s what Hopkins will no doubt be doing in this fight. He knows he can’t allow Dawson to fight on the outside and dominate with his jab and hand speed. Hopkins will be trying to go after Dawson to turn it into a battle in a phone booth sized area, preferably against the ropes. Dawson needs to keep the fighting to the center of the ring where he’s got the quicker hands and feet. Hopkins will be charging in a lot and will be vulnerable to uppercuts and left hooks from Dawson during those attacks.