By Dan Ambrose: Bob Arum sees the December 3rd rematch between WBA junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito going pretty much the same way it did last time they fought in July 2008, with Cotto hitting and running and Margarito stalking him continuously.

Arum thinks that Cotto can win this time if he’s worked on his conditioning enough for him to go the full 12 rounds without running out of gas. Arum obviously doesn’t think that Cotto can dent Margarito’s chin and stop him, and that’s why he’s leaving it up to Cotto’s conditioning. Arum promotes both fighters, so don’t expect him to really come out point blank and really tell you how he feels about this fight.

Speaking with esnewsreporting.com, Arum said “I think it’s going to be like the last fight. The question is has Cotto been able to train his body to go the full 12 rounds? If he does, he wins the fight. If he doesn’t, it’s the same result.”

Well, looking at recent photos of Cotto, he’s not looking too well trained at the moment. Cotto is sporting a pot belly at this time, and looks fatter than I can ever recall him looking.

In posing next to Nonito Donaire, an in shape bantamweight, Cotto looked more like his elderly trainer than a professional fighter. I suppose it’s good news that Cotto’s flab is centrally located around his belly region, because if he fat all over him like some fighters do when they get grossly out of shape, I would say it will be next to impossible for him to be in shape by December. But I think Cotto will take off his pot belly, and be in shape by the third of December. But I don’t think Cotto will be in as good as shape as he was when he was 27, fighting Margarito.

Cotto is older now, has had more time to let his body go in between fights, and hes’ taken a lot of punishment in fights against Joshua Clottey, Manny Pacquiao and to a small degree against Ricardo Mayorga. I don’t see Cotto being in better shape. I think it comes down to Margarito, and his power. Cotto will be slower, older and not in the shape he needs to be to run for 12 rounds. But if Margarito still has the power he had last time he fought Cotto, then he’ll win. If his power is mysteriously gone, then he loses and loses badly.