By Dan Ambrose: Photo: Naoki Fakuda: Trainer Freddie Roach believes that his fighter Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (42-0-1, 30 KO’s) will emerge victorious tonight in the 25-yer-old Chavez’s first attempt at winning a title in a bout against WBC middleweight champion Sebastian Zbik (30-0, 10 KO’s) at the Staples Center, in Los Angeles, California. Roach sees the young Chavez’s body punching as a major key to him winning the fight and giving Chavez his first major title.

However, it’s unfortunate that Chavez Jr is facing Zbik rather than a fighter like Sergio Martinez. Zbik had the WBC title handed to him without fighting for it when Martinez was stripped of the title by the World Boxing Council for not fighting his mandatory. Beating a guy that is considered a paper champion isn’t the same thing as beating an actual champion in my view. I wouldn’t give Chavez any chance of beating Martinez now, so Chavez Jr. is very fortunate that the WBC stripped Martinez.

Speaking with philboxing.com, Roach said this in regards to why Chavez will beat Zbik: “Body punching…his dedication and training hard will win him the championships.”

Chavez Jr. is already the WBC Silver middleweight champion, and it will be hard to see Chavez as a champion if he beats Zbik because of the way that Zbik won the title. Until Chavez Jr. fights someone like Martinez, Dmitry Pirog, Gennady Golovkin or Felix Sturm, he may be seen as a paper champion. The thing is Chavez Jr. probably won’t be getting anywhere near those fighters for a while if he wins the title tonight. Chavez Jr. will likely face junior middleweight Miguel Cotto in his next fight in September at a catchweight. If the WBC title is on the line for that fight, Chavez Jr. will probably lose it because Cotto looks to be a much better fighter than Chavez Jr. at this stage of his career. Who knows if Chavez can improve enough to beat a fighter like Cotto in the future. I kind of doubt that Chavez Jr. is capable of getting much better than he is know. Chavez Jr. lacks hand and foot speed and he’s not a huge puncher. Those assets should already be in place for someone Chavez’s age. You’re supposed to be fast and powerful at 25, and I just don’t see it from Chavez.

As for tonight’s fight, I think Chavez Jr. will have to use another strategy to beat Zbik other than trying to plant himself in front of him all night long throwing body punches. That’s a simple plan and it won’t be effective against a European fighter like Zbik, who prefers to fight at a distance. Roach needs a back up plan for Chavez Jr. if Zbik isn’t willing to fight it out in the trenches. Zbik likes to shift around, throwing jabs and landing with combinations. Chavez Jr. will have to be able to move his feet in order to win this fight. He can’t just plod forward like he did in his unimpressive win over Billy Lyell last January. Zbik will make Chavez Jr. look silly if he fights like that.