By Dan Ambrose: Photo credit: Tom Casino/Showtime – Former WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-2, 32 KO’s) will be hoping to restart his career in a new weight division when he moves up to the super middleweight division tonight to face Texan Alfonso Lopez (21-0, 16 KO’s) in a 10 round bout on the undercard of the Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley bout at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. Pavlik came in at 170 pounds at Friday’s weight-in, which gave a two pound allowance for Pavlik. Kelly can’t afford to lose this fight and still remain relevant in the sport.

Pavlik lost his last bout against Sergio Martinez a year ago in a bloody beating that further exposed Pavlik’s lack of boxing ability and his inability to adapt to changing styles. Pavlik was also schooled by Bernard Hopkins in 2008 in a lopsided 12 round decision loss. In between these embarrassing defeats, did well against the plodders that were put in with him. Pavlik does well against flat-footed fighters that stand in front of him and fight his kind of 50s style of fighting. But when you put him in with a guy that can actually move, Pavlik struggles badly.

I doubt that will ever change because he seems to be limited by his slow hands and slow feet. He is what he is. Tonight, Pavlik should be okay because Lopez is the same kind of fighter as recent Pavlik victims Marco Antonio Rubio and Miguel Espino, only weaker and slower. Lopez doesn’t have much speed and his power looks very average despite his impressive knockout record. In looking at some of his fights, his opponents have looked awful and it’s not surprising that they caved in when they were hit. A lot of them looked like they walked in off the street to take the fight and were in no way prepared to get tagged in the head. Pavlik will roll over Lopez tonight unless Pavlik has really lost it.

Other than that, the only way I can see this fight going past six rounds is if Pavlik decides to carry Lopez to get in some rounds and to slowly beat him down. Lopez doesn’t have the kind of power to worry Pavlik, so he can basically toy with him for as long as he wants before taking out the inexperienced fighter. It’s too bad Bob Arum couldn’t find a better fighter than this because Lopez looks really mediocre and not even close to being a 1st tier fighter. If you’re into watching mismatches, this is the fight for you. Lopez has no chance unless Pavlik has become shot in the past year.