By Punching Publican: The long anticipated fight between WBA Light Welterweight Champion Amir Khan and WBA Interim Champion Marcos Rene Maidana takes place this coming weekend at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Having followed boxing for the best part of 25 years, never have I been so uncertain on the outcome of a fight despite the huge gulf in technical ability. Two factors make predicting this fight difficult: How good is Marcos Maidana and more significantly how good is Amir Khan’s punch resistance?

Lets start with the hard punching Maidana (29-1, 27 KO’s) who was pretty much unknown until bursting onto the world stage in 2009 in an up and down epic with Victor Ortiz. Maidana was down three times in total but floored Ortiz twice and by the 6th round had broken his heart. Previous to the Ortiz fight that year Maidana lost a close and exciting fight to Andriy Kotelnik in Germany. A fight that could have gone either way.

Maybe the latest fight of Maidana’s career against DeMarcus ‘Chop Chop’ Corley tells us more about him. In August of this year Maidana was given all he could handle in a fight that one judge had them separated by only 3 points. Factor in the knockdown Maidana scored in the 7th round and it was an uncomfortable nights work. Maidana also appeared to tire against the 36 year old Corley down the final stretch of the fight. Chop Chop became only the third man to take Maidana the distance in a 30 fight career spanning 6 years. For early periods of the fight Maidana appeared to be troubled going backwards, showed out when cut in the 3rd and generally didn’t appear to have a plan B. He did however punch in bunches for the first 9 rounds. HBO had him throwing over 1200 over the championship distance.

Maidana’s fight winning assets are his vaunted power, wild unorthodox style, high punch output and his never say die attitude. On the down side he is vulnerable to counters when on the offensive (He was down against light punching Omar Leon who wasn’t noted as a puncher), lack of speed and his inability to adapt during a fight.

Amir Khan (23-1, 17 KO’s) appears to be a polar opposite in terms of his boxing style and technical ability. Khan has been a British star in the making since the 2004 Athens Olympics. With his fast hands and rapid-fire combinations. Cracks did appear in several early fights and these have been well documented. Light punching Rachid Drilzane had Khan down briefly in 2006. Willie Limond had him in real trouble in 2007. In 2008 Khan was down from a left hook from Michael Gomez who was a division above his optimum weight and five years past his best. Then came the Prescott defeat that threatened to end the carer of Khan.

Following the loss Freddie Roach became his trainer and Khan is now a division higher at light welter and looking a more rounded fighter. There are some good names on the Khan record since the Prescott loss. Barerra, Kotelnik, Salita and Malignaggi were all beaten quite comfortably. All of these opponents showed the offensive improvements Khan has made under Roach, but none of these fights told us much in terms of Khan’s vulnerability. And that’s where the problem and uncertainty with this fight exists.

Roach has gone on record saying that the Prescott loss was a one off and that he was caught cold. Manny Pacquiao suffered two 3rd round ko’s in what can be considered the first part of his career. And that’s how I am viewing Khan’s loss. If any trainer can turn around a fighter’s confidence and mitigate vulnerabilities, then Freddie roach is the man of the moment.

Khan’s fight winning assets are his speed & movement, underrated power and probably most importantly Freddie Roach. On the down side his punch resistance will always be questioned and his willingness to slug it out when tagged.

I’m going to go against an underlying fear that Khan will engage Maidana early in this fight and predict the following:

Khan will be on the front foot claiming centre of the ring shooting out a stiff and spiteful jab, slotting in fast right hands keeping Maidana off balance and unable to set himself for the big right hand. Maidana will attack in straight lines and its here where Khan will need to counter quickly and move away from the fight ending right hand. The pattern will continue through to the middle rounds and this is where the fight will be won or lost for Khan. I don’t see Maidana having a plan B. For him the key to victory is landing the one big right hand. If Khan fights intelligently and sticks to Roach’s instructions, then the accumulation of punches will start to erode the strength and fortitude of Maidana. Khan will emerge victorious somewhere in the late rounds with Maidana being picked off with stinging combinations. I see the ref intervening as Khan opens up with Maidana pinned on the ropes defenceless….

However this is boxing and if Khan switches off for a split second and elects to trade believing he can outlast Maidana, then full WBA Light Welterweight Champion status will be El Chino’s and so will mouth watering fights with the likes of Timothy Bradley or Devon Alexander.

Khan in 9 tense but ultimately one-sided rounds.

May the best man win: Yours in boxing – Punching Publican