Pavlik vs. Martinez: Kelly may need a knockout to win

By Boxing News - 03/17/2010 - Comments

Image: Pavlik vs. Martinez: Kelly may need a knockout to winBy Jim Dower: WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-1, 32 KO’s) doesn’t have the fastest hands or the best boxing skills in the division. There’s probably a ton of faster and better skilled fighters in the top 10 compared to Pavlik, but none of them have his power. It’s Pavlik’s power which enables him to beat guys that have been overall tools than him and have kept him as the WBC/WBO middleweight champion for the past three years since Pavlik defeated Jermain Taylor in 2007 to win the titles.

Of course, it hasn’t hurt Pavlik any that the middleweight division has been horrible during the past three years in terms of talent. It also hasn’t hurt Pavlik any that his promoter has wisely pitted him against the likes of Gary Lockett, Marco Antonio Rubio and Miguel Espino rather than more arguably dangerous foes like Paul Williams, Gennady Golovkin, Arthur Abraham, Felix Sturm, and Daniel Jacobs.

Had Pavlik’s promoter put Pavlik in with those fighters, there’s a good chance that Pavlik wouldn’t be the middleweight champion anymore. As it is, Pavlik was beaten by 45-year-old Bernard Hopkins in October 2008, but the fight was at a catch weight of 170 rather than at 160, the middleweight limit.
Pavlik will be facing his best opponent since Hopkins when he fights Sergio Martinez on April 17th, at the Boardwalk Hall, in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Martinez lost his last fight to Paul Williams by a 12 round majority decision in December. Williams had huge problems with the movement and pot shots from Martinez, and was never really able to get his offense untracked because of the constant movement from the Argentinean fighter.

Having seen the fight a couple of times, I felt that Martinez should have been given the decision because I thought he won the fight by at least a two round margin. Martinez didn’t let Williams set offense the way he likes to do by standing directly in front of his opponent and literally raining punches down on them.

Pavlik is the same kind of fighter at least in terms of needing to be directly in front of his opponent to do his best work. Pavlik has poor lateral movement, and isn’t good at reacting well when his opponent moves laterally. Pavlik is a fighter that does well against opponents that fight in straight lines and who stay in one place pretty much.

If you look at who Pavlik has been matched against by his promoter, you’ll see that in almost every case it’s been a fighter that is stationary and who can’t move around the ring. The once exception was Hopkins, who even at 45, was able to have Pavlik tied in knots every time he would move a little. Martinez will be moving a lot, jabbing and pot shotting Pavlik continuously.

Unless the judges are feeling especially generous to Pavlik on April 17th, I can’t see him beating Martinez by a decision. It will likely take a knockout win for Pavlik to defeat Martinez unless the judges mess Martinez over by giving Pavlik the win, even if he’s out-boxed by Martinez all night long.



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