By Dan Ambrose: Top Rank promoter Bob Arum thinks the Manny Pacquiao vs. Joshua Clottey fight is going to be a tougher fight than Pacquiao’s 12th round TKO win over Miguel Cotto last November. In an article at Philstar, Arum says “This fight is going to be harder than the Cotto fight. Why” Because Clottey is more durable than Cotto.” It’s unclear whether Arum really means this or is just saying this to drum up boxing fan interest in purchasing the fight on pay-per-view or buying tickets to watch it in the huge Dallas Cowboy Stadium.

“Clottey is bigger and stronger, but Manny is a much better boxers, a much better athlete,” Arum says. There’s no question that Pacquiao is the better fighter in this bout. The only question is whether Clottey can fight better than he has in the recent past and possibly pull off an upset. On paper, Clottey doesn’t have the slightest chance to beat Pacquiao.

Clottey has few wins over credible opponents during his career, and has a nasty habit of covering up for long stretches of his fight and just absorbing punches to his gloves. He blocks a lot of shots, to be sure, but Clottey also gets hit a lot too because he covers up too much without throwing enough punches back at his opponents.

Arum says “If Manny loses, I would be sorry for Manny. But that’s boxing and a lot of things can happen. Clottey is a very good and a very dangerous welterweight. If Clottey is successful then I would go immediately to Clottey who is under promotion to us and ask him to do a rematch.”

If Pacquiao loses, Arum’s cash cow will likely take a big hit in a loss of fans. I can understand why Arum would want to arrange a rematch as fast as possible. Pacquiao would need to beat Clottey in order to reestablish his credibility as a fighter. After all, few boxing experts think that Clottey has a chance of beating Pacquiao. If he actually does end up beating Manny, this would be a huge upset.

Still, Arum and Top Rank would do well regardless of whether Pacquiao loses, because they promote both Pacquiao and Clottey. However, there’s probably very little chance that Clottey can beat a fighter like Pacquiao. Clottey is too predictable with his offense, and with his primitive crab shell defense, he spends too much time covering up and not enough time opening up with his offense.

Clottey can’t beat a fighter like Pacquiao by covering up, and he’s not a big enough puncher to score a one punch knockout. He’s the type of fighter that needs to land an accumulation of punches for him to take out an opponent. Clottey has only one knockout win in the past five years, so it’s probably safe to say that he won’t be knocking Pacquiao out on March 13th.

Arum says “I don’t know how you knock Clottey out.” This is very true. Clottey has never been stopped before, and it’s unlikely that Pacquiao will be able to get a stoppage win unless the referee jumps in and stops the fight due to Clottey not throwing punches back at Pacquiao.