By Scott Gilfoid: Trainer Freddie Roach is predicting a knockout victory for British heavyweight David Haye over World Boxing Association heavyweight champion Nikolay Valuev, according to The Telegraph. Roach says “Haye will flatten Valuev, he’ll crush him.” Roach points out that Haye has too much power and speed for Valuev to contend with. Roach believes that Haye will “become the first man to knock Valuev out.”

Personally, I have a lot of respect for Roach as a trainer, but I don’t think his expertise involves evaluating the talent of fighters in the heavyweight division. Roach doesn’t train any quality heavyweights that I’m aware other than fringe heavyweight contender Brian Minto. As such, I see Roach’s prediction as being worthless and way off base. If anything, Haye might end up getting knocked out if he tries to score a stoppage of Valuev.

Haye’s chin is too weak, he’s too small and doesn’t have the experience of fighting big heavyweights with the talent of Valuev. Plus, Haye is coming off a year layoff from boxing and will likely be more than a little rusty and tentative against Valuev. Haye won’t want to blow his big chance of making money in the future, and that’s exactly what Haye would be doing if he tries to take Valuev out.

I’m frankly surprised that Roach is naive enough to think that Haye can score a knockout of Valuev. Either Roach is out of touch with the heavyweight division and not too familiar with Haye’s fight history or he’s greatly underestimating Valuev’s ability and chin. If there is going to be a knockout in this fight, I firmly believe it will be the smallish Haye who ends up getting stopped in the bout, not Valuev.

Roach had a lot of praise for Haye in the interview, saying “Haye’s the best thing for the heavyweight division right now, because he comes to fight.” That’s certainly true, Haye does come to fight. And Haye is exciting to watch, but unless Haye can find a solution to his weak chin, his bouts will likely only be exciting unless he’s matched very carefully from now on. Roach seems to miss out on the fact that Haye hasn’t fought a soul in the heavyweight division except for 38-year-old Monte Barrett and an obscure fighter by the name of Tomasz Bonin.

It’s easy to look exciting when you’re facing weak punchers like those two, but will Haye continue to take risks against better heavyweights like Valuev or the Klitschko brothers. I seriously doubt it, and if he does, Haye might end up being another Herbie Hide. I suppose Roach thinks Hide is exciting too, but in a kind of car wreck sort of way. You never know what you’re going to get with him. I see Haye as being that kind of fighter in the heavyweight division.

Roach believes that Haye will be able to beat Valuev without any problems because how poorly Valuev fought against Evander Holyfield last December. Roach uses the flawed logic that because Holyfield was able to give Valuev problems, then it means that a younger, faster heavyweight like Haye should be able not only be able to beat Valuev but be able to take him out. Wrong! Haye isn’t Holyfield, not even close.

Even at 46, Holyfield still has a good chin. It might not be as good as it used to be, but it’s certainly better than Haye in my estimation. Holyfield, although 46, had been fighting quality heavyweights for the past 20 years by the time he had fought Valuev. On the flip-side, Haye has fought no one and looked beatable against Barrett. Boy, is Roach going to be wrong on this one. I can’t wait.