froch32 Photo: SE – By Jason Kim: In looking at the opening match-ups for Showtime’s six-man super middleweight tournament there appears on paper to be three evenly matched fights between the top fighters in the division. Absent unfortunately is IBF super middleweight champion Lucian Bute, who would have no doubt had as much of a chance at winning the tournament as any of the fighters. In the opening match-ups are as follows:

* Arthur Abraham vs. Jermain Taylor on October 10th. Abraham, 29, will have hometown advantage in this fight which will be taking place at the O2 World Arena, in Berlin, Germany. Abraham, formerly one of the best fighters in the middleweight division and the IBF middleweight champion, will be roughly about the same size as Taylor. This is Abraham’s chance to show off his boxing skills and power for American audience. Abraham is short at only 5’10”, but only an inch shorter than the 5’11” Taylor, so the size match up won’t be much of a factor in this fight.

Abraham has been fighting in the 180s as a middleweight and will be plenty big enough against Taylor. Abraham didn’t look good in his last two fights against Lajuan Simon and Mahir Oral, but part of those problems are attributable to Abraham having to drain off a ton of water weight while melting down from 180 to fight at the 160 pound middleweight limit.

Abraham will still have to drop weight to get to the 168 pound super middleweight class, but it will be much less of a strain than it was while fighting as middleweight because of the extra eight pounds that Abraham has to play with. Abraham turned off and on his power display against Oral in his last fight, knocking him down five times in the process of getting the 10th round stoppage on June 27th of this year.

Taylor, 30, was defeated by World Boxing Council super middleweight champion Carl Froch in a 12th round knockout with only 14 seconds left in the fight. Taylor would have won the fight had he stayed on his feet until the end of the bout. It was a bitter defeat for Taylor, highlighting his problems with stamina issues that have plagued him in fights against Kelly Pavlik, Winky Wright, Cory Spinks and Kassim Ouma in the past three years.

Taylor has the better speed and power combination compared to Abraham, and will certainly be problems for the Armenian fighter for at least for the first six rounds of the fight, but unless Taylor finds a way to pace himself a little better than he has, he’s going end up being knocked out or defeated on points by Abraham.

Prediction: Abraham by 11th round TKO.

* Carl Froch vs. Andre Dirrell on October 10th. This fight will be taking place in Froch’s home city of Nottingham, which in theory could give him a big advantage over the American fighter. However, Dirrell, 26, is no stranger to fighting in foreign lands having won a Bronze Medal in the 2004 Olympics for the United States.

If Froch is to win this fight, he’s going to have to put a lot of pressure on Dirrell and make him back up. Dirrell has faced mostly soft opposition since turning pro in 2005, but against the one fighter that put a lot of pressure on him, Curtis Stevens in their fight in June 2007, Dirrell looked very uncomfortable and responded by almost running around the ring from Stevens.

Dirrell took a lot of heat for that fight and there were some boxing fans who were suggesting that it might ruin chances for Dirrell to be shown on any future Showtime fight cards. However, Dirrell appears to have learned his lesson from that fight and has looked outstanding in winning his last six fights, beating quality opponents like Anthony Hanshaw, Mike Paschall and Victor Oganov with relative ease.

Dirrell’s blazing hand speed may be a problem for the 31-year-old Froch to handle. Dirrell is even faster and more powerful than Taylor, who was able to knock Froch down in the 3rd round in their April 25th bout. Froch was two inches taller than Taylor in that fight, but Froch won’t have the size advantage the 6’2” Dirrell, who will have a one inch height advantage and a slight reach advantage as well over Froch.

I think this fight will come down to whether Froch is able to cut off the ring enough to force Dirrell to fight it out with him. If Froch isn’t able to corner Dirrell, he’s going to end up eating jabs and fast combinations all night long against the American.

While I think Froch will be able to cut off the ring to a certain extent against Dirrell, I doubt that Froch will be able to do it enough to get the win. Froch is too mechanical and slow moving to handle a blazing fast fighter like Dirrell, and I can’t see him having much success against him.

Prediction: Dirrell by 12-round unanimous decision, possibly a lopsided victory.

* Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward. As of now, we have no concrete date or location for this fight, but it will likely take place in Ward’s hometown of Oakland, California, which is a city located next to San Francisco. Kessler (41-1, 31 KO’s), the WBA super middleweight champion, has been picked by a number of people to win this tournament. He’s considered to be the best fighter in the division by many boxing experts and has some of the best overall skills out of any of the fighters.

However, Kessler has only fought a small number of good fighters during his career with most of his wins coming against obscure European opponents. Kessler, 30, was defeated by then WBO super middleweight champion Joe Calzaghe in November 2007 by a 12 round decision. The fight was close but there was no denying that Kessler lost the fight.

The jury is still out about how good Calzaghe is as a fighter, because of the lack of high quality competition that he faced during his career. Calzaghe beat a 44-year-old Bernard Hopkins by a 12-round split decision in 2008, so it would suggest that Calzaghe is at least as good as Jermain Taylor, who twice defeated Hopkins by 12 round decisions.

Kessler’s best win of his career is arguably his 12 round shut out over Librado Andrade in March 2007. That was a very good performance by Kessler against a high pressure fighter with a steel chin. However, Ward is the complete opposite of Andrade and any of Kessler’s other opponents, so it’s hard to get a good comparison.

At 25, Ward, a former 2004 Olympic Gold Medalist, has speed, power, size and boxing ability that few other fighters in the division can come close to approaching. Ward is a lot faster than Kessler and moves better than him or any other opponent that Kessler has fought in his career for that matter. Ward is hard to hit, and makes fighters look bad by making them miss with their shots.

In his last fight, he boxed circles around power slugger Edison Miranda, beating him by a lopsided 12 round decision in May. Ward beat Miranda easier than any other fighter had previously beaten him. Although I think Kessler is very sound defensively and in terms of offensive boxing ability, I don’t think he has the youth or the physical tools to beat a fighter like Ward. Andre has the whole package of speed, power, movement and defensive ability that Kessler just doesn’t have.

Prediction: Ward by 12-round unanimous decision.