Which Round Will Wladimir Be Knocking Haye Out?
By Jim Dower: The question is no longer whether IBF heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitchscko will be knocking David Haye out, it’s what round. With a history of a glass jaw, which wasn’t helped by Haye’s 5th round knockdown by Monte Barrett in November, Haye, 28, is little better than an inflated cruiserweight with neither the size or the chin for the heavyweight division who instead of testing himself against other quality heavyweights to earn a shot against Wladimir, was propelled, some say unfairly, to what appears to be a title shot against Wladimir in the summer.
The lack of size, the history of chin problems and the limited experience as a heavyweight, seems to suggest that this will be a quick fight.
Haye’s game is centered on his ability to land big shots in a quick assault. However, from the outside he’s rather limited and open to being jabbed by the longer reach of Wladimir. The Ukrainian doesn’t even have to fight him. He just needs to wait on the outside and pick him apart and wait for Haye to break down and eventually drop for the count.
Seeing Haye’s fights with Jean Marc Mormeck, Carl Thompson and Barrett, Haye seems to go down quite easily, getting hurt by shots that most heavyweights probably could take without much problems. Haye’s only chance at winning is to score a knockout, preferably early before his stamina gives out on him like it did against Thompson in 2004.
In contrast, Wladimir has the ability to win by a decision. Indeed, he probably would prefer to win that way so as not to have to get his hands dirty taking chance of trying to slug it out with the shorter 6’3″ Haye. Yet even if Wladimir would chose to slug with Haye, I’d give Wladimir and better than average chance of taking Haye out quickly.
One or two big left hooks or a right hand from Wladimir, and that’s all it would probably take to get Haye out of there. Haye will probably have great difficulty in taking the power jabs from Wladimir, which are powerful enough to hurt an opponent. If Haye stands on the outside and is unable to get in punching range of Wladimir, then I can see the fight lasting possibly six to eight rounds as Haye’s face slowly busts up under the stress of Wladimir’s jabs.
However, if Wladimir comes out aggressive, firing right hands and left hooks, I seriously doubt that Haye can take those kinds of shots for more than a round or two at the most. Wladimir is a much bigger puncher than Mormeck, Enzo Maccarinelli or the other cruiserweights that Haye has fought in his career and once he gets hit with a big shot from Wladimir, it will be a whole new experience for Haye, one that he’s probably not ready for. Give it a round or two, but probably no more than that unless Haye decides to go in his shell and run from Wladimir. In that case, I see him lasting possibly until the 8th and then getting taken out.