Cotto-Margarito II: What are Miguel’s Chances In a Rematch?

By Boxing News - 09/11/2008 - Comments

cotto64257461.jpgBy Eric Thomas: In the latest boxing news, there are discussion of Miguel Cotto (32-1, 26 KOs) facing WBA welterweight champion Antonio Margarito (37-5, 27 KOs) in a possible rematch in 2009 if both of them win their next bouts. If this turns out to be the case, it will no doubt be a huge mega-fight for both of them with each likely making by far the biggest payday of their careers. Last time out, Cotto, 27, took a ferocious beating ending with him, his face a bloody mess, taking a knee twice in the 11th round causing the fight to be stopped. It was the type of beating that often stays with a fighter for the remainder of their career and one that few ever recover from.

You got to like Cotto – if he does choose to take the fight – for showing the courage to get back in the ring with Margarito after experiencing such a horrendous beating last time out. It will be interesting to observe how Cotto fights, in particular after being so badly broken by Margarito. I don’t really know how things can be any different for Cotto next time out, other than Margarito fighting with even more confidence knowing that he can eventually pressure him enough to break him a second time. Like in his rematch with Kermit Cintron, Margarito made it look even easier by stopping Cintron in the 6th round without getting so much as a scratch in the process.

I wish I could say the same thing for Cotto, who will likely not only a get a few scratches, he might get his badly scarred head taken clean off by Margarito in a rematch between the two sluggers. Obviously, the first thing Cotto needs to do, if he plans on winning, is to try and improve his historically poor endurance. That will be easier said than done for him, because he started running out of gas by the 7th round last time out.

He took serious punishment from rounds seven until the bitter end in the eleventh. Considering that Cotto has faded in his fights with Shane Mosley, Oktay Urkal and somewhat against Zab Judah, it’s probably a little too over ambitious to hope that he’ll ever be able to fix this problem. He is what he is. He fights well in the early rounds but he wasn’t made to last. If he gets into a situation where he needs to win the latter rounds in order to squeak out a decision against Margarito, you can pretty much forget about it, Cotto will lose then.

However, if he’s smart, and wins most of the rounds in the first half of the fight, he might be able to steal one or two of the later rounds by clinching often like Bernard Hopkins and John Ruiz. In other words, using the tried and true method of the old ‘punch and grab’ style of fighting. It might just work against Margarito, although it’s no given because Margarito fights extremely well at close range, even when being held in a clinch, and he’ll simply batter Cotto with his free hand to the head.

With as much scar tissue that Cotto has around his eyes from previous fights, he’ll very likely open up like a busted tomato not long into the fight using the clinching style of fighting. However, that’s really his only chance of winning against Margarito. He can’t stand and trade with him for long because he’s too short, and doesn’t have half the work rate that Margarito does, nor can he try and run all night long like he did last time.

While it kept him in the lead for the first portion of the fight, he paid a serious price later on when he couldn’t run nearly as well. Personally, I don’t like Cotto’s chances no matter what style he uses. He’s basically up the river without a paddle in this one. I think he’s vulnerable against any of the top fighters in the welterweight division after his last beating, and I doubt he will be able to take much more punishment without kissing the canvas again. I see Cotto turned into another bloody mess like last time, with his grape bleeding all over the place.



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