By Manuel Perez: It isn’t often that boxing fans get to see a match-up as important or potentially as exciting as the July 26th title bout between unbeaten WBA welterweight champion Miguel Cotto (32-0, 26 KOs) and challenger Antonio Margarito (36-5, 26 KOs) at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Though both fighters like to say that this bout will decide which fighter is the number # 1 welterweight in the division, it’s clear to most boxing experts that WBC welterweight champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. is still the number one guy in the division no matter who comes out the winner between Cotto and Margarito.
The problem with Mayweather, however, is that he’s not likely to fight Cotto or Margarito any time soon, if ever. That, sadly, leaves it to the fans and boxing writers to decide among themselves who the real number one fighter is in the division. At this point, it’s still Mayweather, as he still looks to be a level above Cotto or Margarito in terms of skills. That’s likely to change, though, in the next year or so, especially if Mayweather fails to take on anyone other than Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton.
Margarito, 30, is giving up his newly won IBF welterweight title which he won with a recent 6th round TKO of champion Kermit Cintron in April. Like in their previous bout in April 2005, Margarito dominated Cintron, averaging 100 punches per round, winning every round, and eventually stopping Cintron with a big body shot in the 6th round.
In hindsight, it was a foolhardy move by Cintron to defend his title against Margarito considering the ease with which Cintron was beaten by him in their previous encounter three years earlier. However, the fight was exciting while it lasted, even if it was mostly a one-sided bout with Margarito winning every round. The bout was only Margarito’s second since losing his WBO welterweight title to Paul Williams in a 12-round unanimous decision loss in July 2007. At the time, many people figured that it would take Margarito at least two years to work his way back into another title shot, yet he proved a lot of people wrong by quickly doing it in only none months. Though, as I mentioned previously, he got a lot of help by Cintron, who took the risky fight with Margarito when he didn’t have to.
Margarito’s style of fighting, in which he often averages well over 100 punches per round, would seem to be the wrong style for the more limited Miguel Cotto to have to deal with. Cotto is more of a banger, a fighter that tends to fight slower, putting all his energy into almost every shot. He is excellent on the inside, where he likes to throw hard hooks to the body and head. On the outside, he’s added an excellent jab to his offensive skills, which he used effectively against Shane Mosley, Zab Judah and most recently in his fight with Alfonse Gomez, whom he beat by a 5th round stoppage in April.
When things aren’t going his way, like in fights with Zab Judah and Ricardo Torres, Cotto sometimes tends to land hard low blows, which seem to work to get the head off of him. It remains to be seen whether Cotto can match Margarito’s high volume offense, bettering it by harder shots. Without a doubt, no one expects Cotto to be able to match Margarito in his high volume punch output, because Cotto is often hard pressed to average 60 punches per round compared to Margarito’s 100. I don’t expect Margarito to start slowly, either, like he did in his fight against Williams, as Margarito has seemingly learned his lesson from that defeat, where he lost the first six rounds because of his slow start.
Part of that loss has to be because of the style of Williams, who has an even higher punch output than Margarito, and simply beat him at his own game. It will be interesting to see what Cotto can do to counteract the numerous shots that Margarito will be throwing his way. Margarito won’t be slowed down by a jab from Cotto, like some of his other opponents have, because Margarito will walk right through them. Cotto, if he has any chance at winning, will have to hurt Margarito with something big and hope that he can stop him, or at the very least, knock him down multiple times.
Short of that, Margarito will be too much for him and win by a unanimous decision. Cotto had his hands full against Shane Mosley, whom he barely beat by a narrow decision in November 2007. Margarito, though, is a step above Mosley in ability at this stage of Mosley’s career, and Margarito’s offense is much more dangerous than Mosley. For that reason, I’d have to say that unless Cotto stops Margarito, we’re going to see him beating another Puerto Rican fighter like he did last time out with his win over Cintron. I see this fight as a mismatch, with Margarito having too much fire power for the slower Cotto.
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