Last night, Alexander Povetkin (15-0, 11 KOs) earned the right to be the mandatory for the International Boxing Federation title with his victory over Eddie Chambers. However, it’s still too early to tell whether it will be Wladimir Klitschko, the current IBF heavyweight champion, or Sultan Ibragimov, who Wladimir will be fighting on February 23rd at Madison Square Garden. Most people safely assume that it will be Klitschko, 31, who will be the winner of the fight, for he has all the factors in the fight in his favor – height, reach, power, skill and boxing ability.
Though, as Klitschko has shown in previous bouts, he’s not infallible, and is capable of losing to lesser skilled opponents, usually ones that can punch. In this case, Wladimir has little to worry about due to Ibragimov having little power to speak of. For all that, I’m assuming that Wladimir will be the one that Povetkin will be facing sometime in late 2008. So, how would the 28 year-old Povetkin do against a fighter as powerful and tall as Wladimir Klitschko? From what I’ve seen of Povetkin in his previous bouts, against Larry Donald, Chris Byrd and most recently Eddie Chambers, he seems to have average speed and power.
In a lot of ways, he reminds me a lot of a smaller, perhaps maybe a little more level-headed Andrew Golota, minus his power. He fights in the same way, focusing on throwing double and triple hooks to the body and head. Povetkin’s speed about the same as Golota, which is to say, he’s not very fast. However, Povetkin seems to be able to make up for his lack of speed by having extraordinary stamina, allowing him to throw many more punches than his typical opponent can. He does tend to exhaust himself, as we saw in between rounds and after the fight last night, when Povetkin was seen gasping for air.
However, once he starts fighting, he doesn’t look tired at all and fights as if he were fresh. This may end up being a problem for Klitschko if he’s unable to take Povetkin out with a rain of shots in the first six or so rounds. If Povetkin is still standing after the 6th round, when Klitschko typically gets tired and loses power, the fight may be up for grabs. I don’t see Povetkin being able to stop Wladimir, even with his historically weak chin, but he may be able to knock him down once or twice, and win the fight in that manner.
I think Povetkin would likely lose every round in the first half of a fight with Klitschko, because he wouldn’t be able to match his incredible power, and would have to work hard to compensate by throwing even more punches than he usually does. That wouldn’t likely sway the judges, however, who would be perhaps more impressed with the way that Klitschko is snapping Povetkin’s head back again and again with big shots.
In the end, I think Povetkin would have big problems dealing with Klitschko’s power, especially if Wladimir were still throwing very hard beyond the 8th round. In that case, Povetkin would either get knocked out from a big shot or stopped on cuts or swelling.