Usyk vs. Briedis analysis and prediction

By Boxing News - 01/26/2018 - Comments

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By Allan Fox: Oleksandr Usyk (13-0, 11 KOs) says he plans on making it entertaining for the fans tonight in his unification fight against Mairis Briedis in the World Boxing Super Series (WBSS) at the Arena Riga in Riga, Latvia.

(photo courtesy of World Boxing Super Series)

Let’s hope for the fans this is an exciting fight, because some of Usyk’s contests at the pro level haven’t been that exciting to watch. He moves a lot and likes to jab and pot shot. Usyk’s style is one that is suited to fans that enjoy watching the technical side of the sport rather than the action-packed side.

This is how tonight’s fight breaks down:

• Speed – Usyk. He’s a little faster than Briedis

• Power – Briedis

• Ring IQ – Usyk

• Defensive skills – Usyk

• Size – Usyk

• Mobility – Usyk

Briedis, 33, is the bigger puncher of the two and is fighting at home in Latvia. But for Briedis to have a chance of winning tonight, he’s going to need to cut off the ring and pressure Usyk nonstop from start to finish. Usyk doesn’t mind if he makes it boring. He just wants to win, and he’ll box all night long while being booed, and he won’t bother changing his style of fighting to please the fans. Usyk’s goal is to win the fight period. The best way Usyk can do that is to make sure he stays on the move as much as possible, and he avoids getting caught by Briedis’ big right-hand shots that he likes to land. Usyk does not like getting hit, and he’s going to make sure that he limits the amount of times Briedis is able to land his power shots in the fight. The only way to fight Usyk is to go after him and throw lots of nonstop punches. You don’t beat Usyk by loading up on single punches, because he knows how to nullify that type of fighting.

The winner of tonight’s WBSS semifinals fight will face the winner of the Yunior Dorticos (21-0, 20 KOs) vs. Murat Gassiev (25-0, 18 KOs) February 3 fight in the finals of the tournament, which will be taking place in May.

“My team is doing everything to take pressure off my shoulders,” Briedis . “We are just concentrating on the fight. My dream is to deliver a fight that can go into the Boxing Hall of Fame.”

Briedis won’t be delivering a Hall of Fame type of performance tonight if he performs like he did in his clash against Mike Perez in his quarterfinals fight in the WBSS last September. That was an ugly fight that involved a lot of clinching in each round. Briedis would throw a punch and fall into a clinch. There was no inside fighting between the two. It was a lot of single shots, missed punches and holding. If Briedis had the ability to fight on the inside, he would have taken care of business quickly.

Briedis hasn’t fought a lot of movers in his career with the style that Usyk will be showing tonight. If Briedis was from the U.S, he likely would have trained and fought with a lot of guys that fight like Usyk. But where he’s from, he hasn’t had to deal with that elusive style of fighting. Briedis will need to handle the movement of Usyk if he’s to have any chance of winning. It’s not easy adapting to Usyk’s style of fighting, because he’s rangy and capable of changing directions quickly. At the same time, Usyk has respectable punching power. When Usyk sits down on his punches, he can hit hard. That’s what makes him difficult to beat.

“I am going to entertain the crowd at the Arena Riga,” Usyk said. “That I can promise! I have worked on some new thing and Saturday you will see what I’m talking about.”

Prediction

It’s going to be next to impossible for Briedis to get the win over Usyk unless he can cut off the ring and force him to brawl. Briedis is at his best when his opponents are attempting to throw combinations. Briedis is excellent at landing countering shots. Where Briedis struggles is when his opponents are jabbing, throwing single shots and moving around. Briedis is not equipped to deal with that style of fighting. Usyk had problems with American Michael Hunter last April. Hunter has fought a lot of guys that move around the ring like Usyk, and he was able to adapt quickly to what he was doing and get the better of him with his high workrate. Usyk was able to win, but the fight was still a hard one for him. Hunter exposed Usyk a little. If Briedis can follow the blueprint that Hunter created, then he might be able to give him problems tonight. Briedis will need to be smart and apply massive pressure for him to have any real chance of winning the fight. Briedis will have the fans on his side, but that’s probably not going to help him too much in this fight. Usyk is comfortable fighting in his opponents’ hometown, as he showed in his wins over Krzystof Glowacki in Poland and Marco Huck in Germany.