(Photo Credit: Stephanie Trapp / SHOWTIME) By Thomas Cowan: WBA World light middleweight champion Austin Trout faces WBC champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez on Saturday at the Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas. Canelo has had 42 fights and is unbeaten but his opponents haven’t been great so there’s a big question mark about his ability to handle world class opponents.
Trout totally out-boxed Miguel Cotto in December who had only been beaten by Antonio Margarito (a defeat he avenged by knockout), Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao so there’s no doubt that Trout is a world class fighter. Canelo’s best opponent is Josesito Lopez, who he destroyed inside 5 rounds. Although Lopez is just a welterweight and I expected Canelo to win, I thought the way he dominated Lopez was very impressive.
Trout has to make sure he doesn’t get backed up in this fight because if he gets backed onto the ropes he’s going to take some serious punishment. He’s also got to be in excellent condition coming into the fight because Canelo seems to have a great chin and I don’t think Trout has the power to knock him out.
Canelo has a tendancy to fight flat-footed which could be an issue in this fight. His footwork is never going to be one of his strong points but he has to make sure he’s not completely flat-footed because Trout has the speed and the style to box circles around Canelo if he fights like that. However, although Canelo’s footwork is poor, some people seem to think that means he’s slow. If Trout is one of those people he’s making a huge error because Canelo’s hand speed is fast and his head movement is decent.
Golden Boy have clearly seen something about Trout that they don’t like because they tried to steer Canelo away from this fight. The only the reason the fight is happening his because Canelo wanted to beat Trout to avenge the loss Rigoberto Alvarez (Canelo’s) brother suffered when he fought Trout and to prove that he deserves a shot a Floyd Mayweather.
I can’t that fight getting made even if Canelo beats Trout because I think Mayweather realised when he fought Cotto that fighting at light middleweight isn’t for him. Although Mayweather clearly won the fight, he took a lot of punishment and didn’t look as good as he normally does. I estimate Canelo’s fight night weight to be around 165lbs and I don’t see Mayweather wanting to give up nearly 20 pounds to his opponent. I’d still predict a Mayweather victory but he’d probably take even more punishment than he took from Cotto so I can’t see that fight getting made.
If Mayweather doesn’t fight at 154lbs again, then the winner of this fight has two easy fights to unify the division in IBF champion Ishe Smith and WBO champion Zaurbek Baysangurov.
I think this will be an excellent fight and it’s so hard to call I don’t think any result would shock me. I’ve been back and forth numerous times but I’m predicting Canelo to win a close decision.
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