Khan-Kotelnik: Amir’s Career on the Line

By Boxing News - 07/01/2009 - Comments

By Scott Gilfoid: After seeing Marco Maidana make quick work of Victor Ortiz last weekend, I now have a bad feeling about Amir Khan’s chances of beating WBA light welterweight champion Andriy Kotelnik in their bout on July 18th at the M.E.N. Arena, in Manchester. Kotelnik, 31, fought Maidana very tough for 12 rounds, taking his best shots and firing back good combinations of his own.

In the end, the fight should have probably been ruled a draw rather than a 12-round split decision win for Kotelnik. But ignoring the controversy over who actually won the fight, Kotelnik proved that he’s just as tough as the knockout artist Maidana.

Looking at the 22-year-old Khan’s previous fights since turning pro in 2005, I can’t see anything there that would suggest that he’s good enough to beat the likes of Kotelnik. What I do see is that Khan has been brought along very carefully against the softest of opponents, aside from his bout with the Colombian Breidis Prescott, who knocked Khan flat in a 1st round KO in 2008.

Khan’s other opponents, including Marco Antonio Barrera, have been nothing special and have served the purpose of being props for Khan to look good against. I can’t blame Khan’s promoter for wanting to finally push him out of the nest somewhat by matching him against Kotelnik, because after all this is a business and Khan can’t continue to fight over 2nd tier fighters for the remainder of his career without boxing fans catching on and turning their backs on him.

Khan has already lost a great deal of fans with his loss to Prescott last year. Khan could have won many of them back had he chosen to go after Prescott to try and avenge the loss. He hasn’t, though, and has stayed far away from Prescott, instead fighting a fighter by the name of Osin Fagan, and then the shot Barrera earlier this year.

When Khan needed to be brought up a rung, he was kept in soft after his loss to Prescott. Now, Khan finds himself on the world stage against an opponent in Kotelnik that Khan looks to be over-matched against. It isn’t that Khan doesn’t have the better hand speed or power, because he certainly has the advantages in those two departments.

However, he doesn’t have the chin or the history of having to battle long and hard to get a win. Only twice in his career Khan has had to fight 10 rounds or more, with the first occurring with his win over the mediocre Rachid Drilzane, who Khan beat by a 10 round decision in December 2006 in a one-sided fight.

In Khan’s other fight that went past 10, he defeated Gary St. Claire by 12-round decision in February 2008. That fight was also totally one-sided with Khan rarely getting hit by the short, 5’4” St. Claire who was giving up six inches in height and five inches in reach to the much taller Khan.

Against Kotelnik, Khan will have a 2 ½” height advantage, which won’t be enough to keep Amir from getting hit. This fight will likely go past 10, but I think Khan will end up taking a lot of punishment in the fight and end up getting stopped.

This won’t be one of his easy opponents that are too short, too slow and too crappy to throw punches back at him. Khan will be getting hit a lot, and Freddie Roach won’t be able to do a thing about it other than to tell Khan to stay on the move the whole time.

Khan won’t be able to move enough to prevent getting beaten down in this fight, and I see Amir getting knocked out by the 10th. If it does go the full distance, Khan will lose by a decision. Of course, since the fight is being held in England, you never really know.



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